Development and initial validation of a multivariable predictive Early Adversity Scale for Schizophrenia (EAS-Sz) using register data to quantify environmental risk for adult schizophrenia diagnosis after childhood exposure to adversity.
Childhood adversity
epidemiology
prediction
psychosis
ranking
risk
scale
schizophrenia
Journal
Psychological medicine
ISSN: 1469-8978
Titre abrégé: Psychol Med
Pays: England
ID NLM: 1254142
Informations de publication
Date de publication:
08 2023
08 2023
Historique:
medline:
1
9
2023
pubmed:
12
7
2022
entrez:
11
7
2022
Statut:
ppublish
Résumé
Additional to a child's genetic inheritance, environmental exposures are associated with schizophrenia. Many are broadly described as childhood adversity; modelling the combined impact of these is complex. We aimed to develop and validate a scale on childhood adversity, independent of genetic and other environmental liabilities, for use in schizophrenia risk analysis models, using data from cross-linked electronic health and social services registers. A cohort of A weighted combination of 42 measures of childhood adversity was derived from the development sample. Independent application to identical measures in validation samples produced Harrell's Concordance statistics of 0.656 and 0.624. Average predicted time to diagnosis curves corresponded with 95% CI limits of observed Kaplan-Meier curves in five prognostic categories. Our Early Adversity Scale for Schizophrenia (EAS-Sz), the first using routinely collected register data, predicts schizophrenia diagnosis above chance, and has potential to help untangle contributions of genetic and environmental liability to schizophrenia risk.
Sections du résumé
BACKGROUND
Additional to a child's genetic inheritance, environmental exposures are associated with schizophrenia. Many are broadly described as childhood adversity; modelling the combined impact of these is complex. We aimed to develop and validate a scale on childhood adversity, independent of genetic and other environmental liabilities, for use in schizophrenia risk analysis models, using data from cross-linked electronic health and social services registers.
METHOD
A cohort of
RESULTS
A weighted combination of 42 measures of childhood adversity was derived from the development sample. Independent application to identical measures in validation samples produced Harrell's Concordance statistics of 0.656 and 0.624. Average predicted time to diagnosis curves corresponded with 95% CI limits of observed Kaplan-Meier curves in five prognostic categories.
CONCLUSIONS
Our Early Adversity Scale for Schizophrenia (EAS-Sz), the first using routinely collected register data, predicts schizophrenia diagnosis above chance, and has potential to help untangle contributions of genetic and environmental liability to schizophrenia risk.
Identifiants
pubmed: 35817425
doi: 10.1017/S0033291722001945
pii: S0033291722001945
pmc: PMC10476059
doi:
Types de publication
Journal Article
Research Support, Non-U.S. Gov't
Langues
eng
Sous-ensembles de citation
IM
Pagination
4990-5000Références
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