Hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) is changing its face: analysis of the temporal trends in aetiology and clinical patterns of HCC in South Australia.
hepatitis C
hepatocellular carcinoma
non-alcoholic steatohepatitis
trend
Journal
Internal medicine journal
ISSN: 1445-5994
Titre abrégé: Intern Med J
Pays: Australia
ID NLM: 101092952
Informations de publication
Date de publication:
07 2023
07 2023
Historique:
revised:
28
12
2021
received:
04
09
2021
accepted:
30
12
2021
medline:
23
10
2023
pubmed:
31
8
2022
entrez:
30
8
2022
Statut:
ppublish
Résumé
The epidemiology of chronic liver disease is changing with the introduction of potent antiviral therapies for chronic hepatitis C virus (HCV) and the increasing prevalence of non-alcoholic steatohepatitis (NASH). To establish the impact of this change on the rates and clinical patterns of hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) in South Australia (SA). Newly diagnosed HCC patients from January 2014 until December 2019 from four tertiary centres in SA were included. The overall age-standardised incidence rates (ASIR) of HCC were calculated using 2016 SA population as the standard. To assess the trends, Join-Point regression models were used to calculate the average annual percentage change (AAPC). Forecasting of overall and aetiology-specific HCC from 2020 to 2024 was performed using linear regression. There were 626 new cases of HCC in SA (males 80%; median age 64 years) during the study period. There was a significant increase in NASH-related HCC (AAPC: +7.0%; P < 0.05) from 2014 to 2019. However, there were no significant differences in the ASIR for overall HCC (AAPC: -4.1%), HCV-related HCC (AAPC: -8.0%) and stage of HCC diagnosis (AAPC: +3.0%; P > 0.05). Forecasting analysis projected the decline and increase in the incidence of HCV and NASH-related HCC, respectively, over the next few years. Overall ASIR of HCC has plateaued in SA. However, NASH-related HCC has increased significantly and is expected to continue to increase in the near future. Further research and intervention is required to reduce NASH-related HCC, a major contributor to the current and future burden of HCC.
Sections du résumé
BACKGROUND
The epidemiology of chronic liver disease is changing with the introduction of potent antiviral therapies for chronic hepatitis C virus (HCV) and the increasing prevalence of non-alcoholic steatohepatitis (NASH).
AIM
To establish the impact of this change on the rates and clinical patterns of hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) in South Australia (SA).
METHODS
Newly diagnosed HCC patients from January 2014 until December 2019 from four tertiary centres in SA were included. The overall age-standardised incidence rates (ASIR) of HCC were calculated using 2016 SA population as the standard. To assess the trends, Join-Point regression models were used to calculate the average annual percentage change (AAPC). Forecasting of overall and aetiology-specific HCC from 2020 to 2024 was performed using linear regression.
RESULTS
There were 626 new cases of HCC in SA (males 80%; median age 64 years) during the study period. There was a significant increase in NASH-related HCC (AAPC: +7.0%; P < 0.05) from 2014 to 2019. However, there were no significant differences in the ASIR for overall HCC (AAPC: -4.1%), HCV-related HCC (AAPC: -8.0%) and stage of HCC diagnosis (AAPC: +3.0%; P > 0.05). Forecasting analysis projected the decline and increase in the incidence of HCV and NASH-related HCC, respectively, over the next few years.
CONCLUSION
Overall ASIR of HCC has plateaued in SA. However, NASH-related HCC has increased significantly and is expected to continue to increase in the near future. Further research and intervention is required to reduce NASH-related HCC, a major contributor to the current and future burden of HCC.
Types de publication
Journal Article
Langues
eng
Sous-ensembles de citation
IM
Pagination
1131-1136Informations de copyright
© 2022 Royal Australasian College of Physicians.
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