Modeling the effect of different drugs and treatment regimen for hookworm on cure and egg reduction rates taking into account diagnostic error.
Journal
PLoS neglected tropical diseases
ISSN: 1935-2735
Titre abrégé: PLoS Negl Trop Dis
Pays: United States
ID NLM: 101291488
Informations de publication
Date de publication:
10 2022
10 2022
Historique:
received:
10
08
2021
accepted:
12
09
2022
revised:
25
10
2022
pubmed:
5
10
2022
medline:
28
10
2022
entrez:
4
10
2022
Statut:
epublish
Résumé
Hookworm infections, caused by Ancylostoma duodenale and Necator americanus, are of considerable public health importance. The World Health Organization recommends preventive chemotherapy as the key strategy for morbidity control. Meta-analyses have been conducted to estimate treatment efficacy of available drugs and drug combinations. However, in most studies, the relation between the diagnostic error and infection intensity have not been considered, resulting in an overestimation of cure rates (CRs). A Bayesian model was developed to compare the 'true' CR and egg reduction rate of different treatment regimens for hookworm infections taking into account the error of the recommended Kato-Katz thick smear diagnostic technique. It was fitted to the observed egg count data which was linked to the distribution of worms, considered the day-to-day variation of hookworm egg excretion and estimated the infection intensity-dependent sensitivity. The CR was obtained by defining the prevalence of infection at follow-up as the probability of having at least one fertilized female worm. The model was applied to individual-level egg count data available from 17 treatments and six clinical trials. Taking the diagnostic error into account resulted in considerably lower CRs than previously reported. Overall, of all treatments analyzed, mebendazole administered in six dosages of 100 mg each was the most efficacious treatment with a CR of 88% (95% Bayesian credible interval: 79-95%). Furthermore, diagnostic sensitivity varied with the infection intensity and sampling effort. For an infection intensity of 50 eggs per gram of stool, the sensitivity is close to 60%; for two Kato-Katz thick smears it increased to approximately 76%. Our model-based estimates provide the true efficacy of different treatment regimens against hookworm infection taking into account the diagnostic error of the Kato-Katz method. Estimates of the diagnostic sensitivity for different number of stool samples and thick smears are obtained. To accurately assess efficacy in clinical trials with the Kato-Katz method, at least two stool samples on consecutive days should be collected.
Sections du résumé
BACKGROUND
Hookworm infections, caused by Ancylostoma duodenale and Necator americanus, are of considerable public health importance. The World Health Organization recommends preventive chemotherapy as the key strategy for morbidity control. Meta-analyses have been conducted to estimate treatment efficacy of available drugs and drug combinations. However, in most studies, the relation between the diagnostic error and infection intensity have not been considered, resulting in an overestimation of cure rates (CRs).
METHODOLOGY
A Bayesian model was developed to compare the 'true' CR and egg reduction rate of different treatment regimens for hookworm infections taking into account the error of the recommended Kato-Katz thick smear diagnostic technique. It was fitted to the observed egg count data which was linked to the distribution of worms, considered the day-to-day variation of hookworm egg excretion and estimated the infection intensity-dependent sensitivity. The CR was obtained by defining the prevalence of infection at follow-up as the probability of having at least one fertilized female worm. The model was applied to individual-level egg count data available from 17 treatments and six clinical trials.
PRINCIPAL FINDINGS
Taking the diagnostic error into account resulted in considerably lower CRs than previously reported. Overall, of all treatments analyzed, mebendazole administered in six dosages of 100 mg each was the most efficacious treatment with a CR of 88% (95% Bayesian credible interval: 79-95%). Furthermore, diagnostic sensitivity varied with the infection intensity and sampling effort. For an infection intensity of 50 eggs per gram of stool, the sensitivity is close to 60%; for two Kato-Katz thick smears it increased to approximately 76%.
CONCLUSIONS/SIGNIFICANCE
Our model-based estimates provide the true efficacy of different treatment regimens against hookworm infection taking into account the diagnostic error of the Kato-Katz method. Estimates of the diagnostic sensitivity for different number of stool samples and thick smears are obtained. To accurately assess efficacy in clinical trials with the Kato-Katz method, at least two stool samples on consecutive days should be collected.
Identifiants
pubmed: 36194622
doi: 10.1371/journal.pntd.0010810
pii: PNTD-D-21-01162
pmc: PMC9595538
doi:
Substances chimiques
Mebendazole
81G6I5V05I
Types de publication
Journal Article
Research Support, Non-U.S. Gov't
Langues
eng
Sous-ensembles de citation
IM
Pagination
e0010810Déclaration de conflit d'intérêts
The authors have declared that no competing interests exist.
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