New prognostic model in patients with advanced urothelial carcinoma treated with second-line immune checkpoint inhibitors.

BACKGROUND

Bellmunt Risk Score, based on Eastern Cooperative Oncology Group (ECOG) performance status (PS), hemoglobin levels and presence of liver metastases, is the most established prognostic algorithm for patients with advanced urothelial cancer (aUC) progressing after platinum-based chemotherapy. Nevertheless, existing algorithms may not be sufficient following the introduction of immunotherapy. Our aim was to develop an improved prognostic model in patients receiving second-line atezolizumab for aUC.

METHODS

Patients with aUC progressing after cisplatin/carboplatin-based chemotherapy and enrolled in the prospective, single-arm, phase IIIb SAUL study were included in this analysis. Patients were treated with 3-weekly atezolizumab 1200 mg intravenously. The development and internal validation of a prognostic model for overall survival (OS) was performed using Cox regression analyses, bootstrapping methods and calibration.

RESULTS

In 936 patients, ECOG PS, alkaline phosphatase, hemoglobin, neutrophil-to-lymphocyte ratio, liver metastases, bone metastases and time from last chemotherapy were identified as independent prognostic factors. In a 4-tier model, median OS for patients with 0-1, 2, 3-4 and 5-7 risk factors was 18.6, 10.4, 4.8 and 2.1 months, respectively. Compared with Bellmunt Risk Score, this model provided enhanced prognostic separation, with a c-index of 0.725 vs 0.685 and increment in c-statistic of 0.04 (p<0.001). Inclusion of PD-L1 expression did not improve the model.

CONCLUSIONS

We developed and internally validated a prognostic model for patients with aUC receiving postplatinum immunotherapy. This model represents an improvement over the Bellmunt algorithm and could aid selection of patients with aUC for second-line immunotherapy.

TRIAL REGISTRATION NUMBER

NCT02928406.

Informations de copyright

© Author(s) (or their employer(s)) 2023. Re-use permitted under CC BY-NC. No commercial re-use. See rights and permissions. Published by BMJ.

Déclaration de conflit d'intérêts

Competing interests: AB: Honoraria, advisory and research funding from Roche, BMS, MSD, Ipsen, Debiopharm, Basilea, Pierre Fabre and Janssen; and steering committee member for Roche. AM: Lectures/speaker honoraria from AstraZeneca, Bristol-Myers Squibb, Eisai, Ipsen, MSD, Merck Serono, Janssen, Takeda, TEVA, Astellas, Novartis, Pfizer and Roche; consultant for AstraZeneca, Astellas, Bristol-Myers Squibb, Ipsen, Janssen, EUSA Pharm, MSD, Merck Serono, Novartis, Takeda, Teva, Pfizer and Roche; research and clinical trials support from AstraZeneca, Astellas, Bristol-Myers Squibb, Ipsen, Janssen, EUSA Pharm, MSD, Merck Serono, Novartis, Takeda, Teva, Pfizer and Roche. YL: Personal fees from Roche, Janssen, Astellas, MSD, Pfizer, BMS, Immunomedics, AstraZeneca, Sanofi and Seattle Genetics; grants from Janssen, MSD and Sanofi; non-financial support from Janssen, Roche, AstraZeneca and Sanofi. NJ: Consultancy from Merck, Roche and AstraZeneca; trial funding (to institution) from Merck, Roche and AstraZeneca. EC: Research grants from Bio-Cancer, Biogen, Novartis, Pfizer, Roche, Sanofi and UCB; consultancy from Abbvie, Amgen, Biogen, Biocon, Chugai Pharma, Eli Lilly, Gilead, Janssen, Merck Serono, Novartis, Pfizer, Regeneron, Roche, R-Pharm and Sanofi; and speakers fees from Abbvie, Amgen, Bristol Myers Squibb, Chugai Pharma, Eli Lilly, Galapagos, Gilead, Janssen, Novartis, Pfizer, Regeneron, Roche, Sanofi and UCB. DC: Personal fees for advisory boards/speaker engagements from Roche, Janssen, Astellas, MSD, Ipsen, Pfizer, Bristol-Myers Squibb, Bayer, AstraZeneca, Novartis, Lilly, Sanofi, Pierre Fabre and Boehringer Ingelheim. FL-R: Honoraria from AstraZeneca, Bayer, BMS, Lilly, MSD, Pfizer, Roche and Thermo Fisher; and research funding from Lilly, Roche and Thermo Fisher. FC: Advisory role for BMS, MSD, Pfizer and AstraZeneca. MK: Honoraria/consultation for Bayer, BMS, Eusai, Novartis, Merck, MSD, Pfizer and Roche; travel grants from Ipsen, Janssen, Merck and Novartis. GdV: Support for clinical trials and scientific projects for Pfizer, Roche and Ipsen; and speaker fees and consulting for Pfizer, Novartis, Roche, MSD, Astellas, Bayer, Ipsen, Janssen, Merck, EUSA Pharma and BMS. RZ: None. KT: None. CNS: Consultant for Pfizer, Merck, MSD, AstraZeneca, Astellas, Sanofi Genzyme, Roche-Genentech, Incyte, BMS, Foundation Medicine, Immunomedics (now Gilead), Medscape, UroToday, CCO Clinical, Janssen and NCI.