A new model for predicting adverse outcomes in arrhythmogenic right ventricular cardiomyopathy.

Arrhythmogenic right ventricular cardiomyopathy (ARVC) is a progressive disease leading to ventricular arrhythmias and heart failure. Determining optimal time for heart transplantation (HTx) is challenging; therefore, it is necessary to identify risk factors for disease progression. The study aimed to identify predictors of end‑stage heart failure and to evaluate the role of biomarkers in predicting adverse outcomes in ARVC. A total of 91 individuals with ARVC (59 men; mean [SD] age, 47 [16] years) were included. In all patients, information on medical history was collected, electrocardiography and echocardiography were performed, and serum levels of selected biomarkers (soluble form of the ST2 protein [sST2], galectin‑3 [Gal‑3], extracellular matrix metalloproteinases [MMP‑2 and MMP‑9], N‑terminal pro-B‑type natriuretic peptide [NT‑proBNP], and high‑sensitivity troponin T [hs‑TnT]) were measured. Thereafter, the participants were followed for the primary end point of death or HTx, as well as the secondary end point of major arrhythmic events (MAEs), defined as sudden cardiac death, ventricular fibrillation, sustained ventricular tachycardia, or appropriate implantable cardioverter‑defibrillator intervention. During the median (interquartile range) follow‑up of 36.4 (29.8-41.2) months, 13 patients (14%) reached the primary end point of death or HTx, and 27 (30%) experienced MAEs. The patients who achieved the primary end point had higher levels of sST2, MMP‑2, NT‑proBNP, and hs‑TnT, but not of Gal-3 and MMP-9. Three factors turned out to be independent predictors of death or HTx: higher NT‑proBNP concentration (≥890.3 pg/ml), greater right ventricular end‑diastolic area (≥39 cm2), and a history of atrial tachycardia. None of the biomarkers predicted MAEs. An NT‑proBNP concentration greater than or equal to 890.3 pg/ml, right ventricular end-diastolic area of 39 cm2 or greater, and a history of atrial tachycardia were identified as risk factors for death or HTx in ARVC. Higher levels of sST2, MMP‑2, NT‑proBNP, and hs‑TnT were associated with reaching the primary end point of death or HTx. The biomarkers had no value in predicting ventricular arrhythmias.