A PREDICTION MODEL FOR SEPSIS IN INFECTED PATIENTS: EARLY ASSESSMENT OF SEPSIS ENGAGEMENT.
Journal
Shock (Augusta, Ga.)
ISSN: 1540-0514
Titre abrégé: Shock
Pays: United States
ID NLM: 9421564
Informations de publication
Date de publication:
01 08 2023
01 08 2023
Historique:
medline:
23
8
2023
pubmed:
21
7
2023
entrez:
21
7
2023
Statut:
ppublish
Résumé
Purpose: To evaluate significant risk variables for sepsis incidence and develop a predictive model for rapid screening and diagnosis of sepsis in patients from the emergency department (ED). Methods: Sepsis-related risk variables were screened based on the PIRO (Predisposition, Insult, Response, Organ dysfunction) system. Training (n = 1,272) and external validation (n = 568) datasets were collected from Peking Union Medical College Hospital (PUMCH) and Beijing Tsinghua Changgung Hospital (BTCH), respectively. Variables were collected at the time of admission. Sepsis incidences were determined within 72 h after ED admissions. A predictive model, Early Assessment of Sepsis Engagement (EASE), was developed, and an EASE-based nomogram was generated for clinical applications. The predictive ability of EASE was evaluated and compared with the National Early Warning Score (NEWS) scoring system. In addition, internal and external validations were performed. Results: A total of 48 characteristics were identified. The EASE model, which consists of alcohol consumption, lung infection, temperature, respiration rate, heart rate, serum urea nitrogen, and white blood cell count, had an excellent predictive performance. The EASE-based nomogram showed a significantly higher area under curve (AUC) value of 86.5% (95% CI, 84.2%-88.8%) compared with the AUC value of 78.2% for the NEWS scoring system. The AUC of EASE in the external validation dataset was 72.2% (95% CI, 66.6%-77.7%). Both calibration curves of EASE in training and external validation datasets were close to the ideal model and were well-calibrated. Conclusions: The EASE model can predict and screen ED-admitted patients with sepsis. It demonstrated superior diagnostic performance and clinical application promise by external validation and in-parallel comparison with the NEWS scoring system.
Identifiants
pubmed: 37477387
doi: 10.1097/SHK.0000000000002170
pii: 00024382-202308000-00008
pmc: PMC10476592
doi:
Types de publication
Journal Article
Research Support, Non-U.S. Gov't
Langues
eng
Sous-ensembles de citation
IM
Pagination
214-220Informations de copyright
Copyright © 2023 The Author(s). Published by Wolters Kluwer Health, Inc. on behalf of the Shock Society.
Déclaration de conflit d'intérêts
The authors report no conflict of interests.
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