Dependence of the AUC of NTCP models on the observational dose-range highlights cautions in comparison of discriminative performance.
AUC
Dose–response relationships
NTCP models
Journal
Physica medica : PM : an international journal devoted to the applications of physics to medicine and biology : official journal of the Italian Association of Biomedical Physics (AIFB)
ISSN: 1724-191X
Titre abrégé: Phys Med
Pays: Italy
ID NLM: 9302888
Informations de publication
Date de publication:
Sep 2023
Sep 2023
Historique:
received:
13
03
2023
revised:
19
06
2023
accepted:
05
08
2023
medline:
18
9
2023
pubmed:
14
8
2023
entrez:
14
8
2023
Statut:
ppublish
Résumé
Normal tissue complication probability (NTCP) models are probabilistic models that describe the risk of radio-induced toxicity in tissues or organs. In the field of radiotherapy, the area under the ROC curve (AUC) is widely used to estimate the performance in risk prediction of NTCP models. In this work, we derived an analytical expression of the AUC for the logistic NTCP model in the case of both symmetrical and asymmetrical dose (to the normal tissue) windows around D Our analytical expression of the AUC made explicit the dependence on both the steepness of the logistic curve (β) and the dose window width (w), showing that an increase of w pushes AUC towards higher values. Increasing values of the AUC with increasing values of w were consistently observed across simulated data sets with diverse clinical settings from published studies and real clinical data sets. Our results reveal that the AUC of NTCP models inherits intrinsic characteristics from the clinical setting of the data set on which the models are developed, and warn against the use of the AUC to compare the performance of models constructed upon data from trials in which substantially different dose ranges were administered or accounting for different risk factors beyond the dose.
Sections du résumé
BACKGROUND
BACKGROUND
Normal tissue complication probability (NTCP) models are probabilistic models that describe the risk of radio-induced toxicity in tissues or organs. In the field of radiotherapy, the area under the ROC curve (AUC) is widely used to estimate the performance in risk prediction of NTCP models.
METHODS
METHODS
In this work, we derived an analytical expression of the AUC for the logistic NTCP model in the case of both symmetrical and asymmetrical dose (to the normal tissue) windows around D
RESULTS
RESULTS
Our analytical expression of the AUC made explicit the dependence on both the steepness of the logistic curve (β) and the dose window width (w), showing that an increase of w pushes AUC towards higher values. Increasing values of the AUC with increasing values of w were consistently observed across simulated data sets with diverse clinical settings from published studies and real clinical data sets.
CONCLUSION
CONCLUSIONS
Our results reveal that the AUC of NTCP models inherits intrinsic characteristics from the clinical setting of the data set on which the models are developed, and warn against the use of the AUC to compare the performance of models constructed upon data from trials in which substantially different dose ranges were administered or accounting for different risk factors beyond the dose.
Identifiants
pubmed: 37579522
pii: S1120-1797(23)00131-X
doi: 10.1016/j.ejmp.2023.102654
pii:
doi:
Types de publication
Journal Article
Langues
eng
Sous-ensembles de citation
IM
Pagination
102654Informations de copyright
Copyright © 2023 Associazione Italiana di Fisica Medica e Sanitaria. Published by Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.
Déclaration de conflit d'intérêts
Declaration of Competing Interest The authors declare that they have no known competing financial interests or personal relationships that could have appeared to influence the work reported in this paper.