Cardiovascular risk assessment in patients with antiphospholipid syndrome: a cross-sectional performance analysis of nine clinical risk prediction tools.

This study aimed to assess the performance of cardiovascular risk (CVR) prediction models reported by European Alliance of Associations for Rheumatology and European Society of Cardiology recommendations to identify high-atherosclerotic CVR (ASCVR) patients with antiphospholipid syndrome (APS). Six models predicting the risk of a first cardiovascular disease event (first-CVD) (Systematic Coronary Risk Evaluation (SCORE); modified-SCORE; Framingham risk score; Pooled Cohorts Risk Equation; Prospective Cardiovascular Münster calculator; Globorisk), three risk prediction models for patients with a history of prior arterial events (recurrent-CVD) (adjusted Global APS Score (aGAPSS); aGAPSS Spiegelhalter's z-test p values 0.47-0.57, area under the receiver-operating characteristics curve (AUROC) 0.56-0.75 and Matthews correlation coefficient (MCC) 0.01-0.35 indicated moderate calibration, poor-to-acceptable discrimination and negligible-to-moderate classification accuracy, respectively, for all risk models. Among recurrent-CVD tools, SMART and aGAPSS Clinical CVR prediction tools underestimate actual high ASCVR in APS. VUS may help to improve CVR assessment and optimal risk factor management.

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Déclaration de conflit d'intérêts

Competing interests: None declared.