A Nationwide Comparative Analysis of Temperature-Related Mortality and Morbidity in Japan.
Journal
Environmental health perspectives
ISSN: 1552-9924
Titre abrégé: Environ Health Perspect
Pays: United States
ID NLM: 0330411
Informations de publication
Date de publication:
Dec 2023
Dec 2023
Historique:
medline:
11
12
2023
pubmed:
7
12
2023
entrez:
7
12
2023
Statut:
ppublish
Résumé
The impact of temperature on morbidity remains largely unknown. Moreover, extensive evidence indicates contrasting patterns between temperature-mortality and temperature-morbidity associations. A nationwide comparison of the impact of temperature on mortality and morbidity in more specific subgroups is necessary to strengthen understanding and help explore underlying mechanisms by identifying susceptible populations. We performed this study to quantify and compare the impact of temperature on mortality and morbidity in 47 prefectures in Japan. We applied a two-stage time-series design with distributed lag nonlinear models and mixed-effect multivariate meta-analysis to assess the association of temperature with mortality and morbidity by causes (all-cause, circulatory, and respiratory) at prefecture and country levels between 2015 and 2019. Subgroup analysis was conducted by sex, age, and regions. The patterns and magnitudes of temperature impacts on morbidity and mortality differed. For all-cause outcomes, cold exhibited larger effects on mortality, and heat showed larger effects on morbidity. At specific temperature percentiles, cold (first percentile) was associated with a higher relative risk (RR) of mortality [1.45; 95% confidence interval (CI): 1.39, 1.52] than morbidity (1.33; 95% CI: 1.26, 1.40), as compared to the minimum mortality/morbidity temperature. Heat (99th percentile) was associated with a higher risk of morbidity (1.30; 95% CI: 1.28, 1.33) than mortality (1.04; 95% CI: 1.02, 1.06). For cause-specific diseases, mortality due to circulatory diseases was more susceptible to heat and cold than morbidity. However, for respiratory diseases, both cold and heat showed higher risks for morbidity than mortality. Subgroup analyses suggested varied associations depending on specific outcomes. Distinct patterns were observed for the association of temperature with mortality and morbidity, underlying different mechanisms of temperature on different end points, and the differences in population susceptibility are possible explanations. Future mitigation policies and preventive measures against nonoptimal temperatures should be specific to disease outcomes and targeted at susceptible populations. https://doi.org/10.1289/EHP12854.
Sections du résumé
BACKGROUND
UNASSIGNED
The impact of temperature on morbidity remains largely unknown. Moreover, extensive evidence indicates contrasting patterns between temperature-mortality and temperature-morbidity associations. A nationwide comparison of the impact of temperature on mortality and morbidity in more specific subgroups is necessary to strengthen understanding and help explore underlying mechanisms by identifying susceptible populations.
OBJECTIVE
UNASSIGNED
We performed this study to quantify and compare the impact of temperature on mortality and morbidity in 47 prefectures in Japan.
METHODS
UNASSIGNED
We applied a two-stage time-series design with distributed lag nonlinear models and mixed-effect multivariate meta-analysis to assess the association of temperature with mortality and morbidity by causes (all-cause, circulatory, and respiratory) at prefecture and country levels between 2015 and 2019. Subgroup analysis was conducted by sex, age, and regions.
RESULTS
UNASSIGNED
The patterns and magnitudes of temperature impacts on morbidity and mortality differed. For all-cause outcomes, cold exhibited larger effects on mortality, and heat showed larger effects on morbidity. At specific temperature percentiles, cold (first percentile) was associated with a higher relative risk (RR) of mortality [1.45; 95% confidence interval (CI): 1.39, 1.52] than morbidity (1.33; 95% CI: 1.26, 1.40), as compared to the minimum mortality/morbidity temperature. Heat (99th percentile) was associated with a higher risk of morbidity (1.30; 95% CI: 1.28, 1.33) than mortality (1.04; 95% CI: 1.02, 1.06). For cause-specific diseases, mortality due to circulatory diseases was more susceptible to heat and cold than morbidity. However, for respiratory diseases, both cold and heat showed higher risks for morbidity than mortality. Subgroup analyses suggested varied associations depending on specific outcomes.
DISCUSSION
UNASSIGNED
Distinct patterns were observed for the association of temperature with mortality and morbidity, underlying different mechanisms of temperature on different end points, and the differences in population susceptibility are possible explanations. Future mitigation policies and preventive measures against nonoptimal temperatures should be specific to disease outcomes and targeted at susceptible populations. https://doi.org/10.1289/EHP12854.
Identifiants
pubmed: 38060264
doi: 10.1289/EHP12854
pmc: PMC10702932
doi:
Types de publication
Meta-Analysis
Journal Article
Langues
eng
Sous-ensembles de citation
IM
Pagination
127008Références
Glob Health Action. 2018;11(1):1437882
pubmed: 29471745
Age Ageing. 2001 Jul;30(4):311-7
pubmed: 11509309
Sci Total Environ. 2020 Jun 25;723:138012
pubmed: 32217384
Int J Biometeorol. 2015 Nov;59(11):1673-84
pubmed: 25744153
Environ Res. 2016 Jan;144(Pt A):106-116
pubmed: 26599589
Environ Health. 2016 Mar 08;15 Suppl 1:33
pubmed: 26961541
BMJ. 2003 Jan 25;326(7382):219
pubmed: 12543843
Stat Med. 2012 Dec 20;31(29):3821-39
pubmed: 22807043
Environ Res. 2021 Jan;192:110191
pubmed: 32980302
Environ Health. 2022 Apr 19;21(1):41
pubmed: 35436963
Epidemiology. 2017 Jan;28(1):72-76
pubmed: 27748681
Sci Total Environ. 2017 May 15;586:241-254
pubmed: 28187945
EBioMedicine. 2016 Apr;6:258-268
pubmed: 27211569
Sci Total Environ. 2016 Apr 15;550:1084-1102
pubmed: 26871555
Environ Epidemiol. 2021 Sep 24;5(5):e169
pubmed: 34934890
Environ Int. 2018 Feb;111:239-246
pubmed: 29272855
Lancet. 2015 Jul 25;386(9991):369-75
pubmed: 26003380
Environ Health Perspect. 2015 Nov;123(11):1200-7
pubmed: 25933359
Lancet. 2020 Oct 17;396(10258):1223-1249
pubmed: 33069327
Environ Health. 2021 Dec 2;20(1):122
pubmed: 34857008
Environ Health Perspect. 2018 May 02;126(5):057002
pubmed: 29727132
Environ Health Perspect. 2019 Sep;127(9):97007
pubmed: 31553655
Occup Environ Med. 2004 Nov;61(11):893-8
pubmed: 15477282
Epidemiol Rev. 2002;24(2):190-202
pubmed: 12762092
BMC Med Res Methodol. 2014 Apr 23;14:55
pubmed: 24758509