Projected estimates of cancer in Canada in 2024.

Humans Canada / epidemiology Neoplasms / epidemiology Male Female Incidence Registries Sex Distribution Forecasting Middle Aged Aged Age Distribution Adult Mortality / trends

Journal

CMAJ : Canadian Medical Association journal = journal de l'Association medicale canadienne
ISSN: 1488-2329
Titre abrégé: CMAJ
Pays: Canada
ID NLM: 9711805

Informations de publication

Date de publication:
12 May 2024
Historique:
accepted: 28 03 2024
medline: 14 5 2024
pubmed: 14 5 2024
entrez: 13 5 2024
Statut: epublish

Résumé

Cancer surveillance data are essential to help understand where gaps exist and progress is being made in cancer control. We sought to summarize the expected impact of cancer in Canada in 2024, with projections of new cancer cases and deaths from cancer by sex and province or territory for all ages combined. We obtained data on new cancer cases (i.e., incidence, 1984-2019) and deaths from cancer (i.e., mortality, 1984-2020) from the Canadian Cancer Registry and Canadian Vital Statistics Death Database, respectively. We projected cancer incidence and mortality counts and rates to 2024 for 23 types of cancer, overall, by sex, and by province or territory. We calculated age-standardized rates using data from the 2011 Canadian standard population. In 2024, the number of new cancer cases and deaths from cancer are expected to reach 247 100 and 88 100, respectively. The age-standardized incidence rate (ASIR) and mortality rate (ASMR) are projected to decrease slightly from previous years for both males and females, with higher rates among males (ASIR 562.2 per 100 000 and ASMR 209.6 per 100 000 among males; ASIR 495.9 per 100 000 and ASMR 152.8 per 100 000 among females). The ASIRs and ASMRs of several common cancers are projected to continue to decrease (i.e., lung, colorectal, and prostate cancer), while those of several others are projected to increase (i.e., liver and intrahepatic bile duct cancer, kidney cancer, melanoma, and non-Hodgkin lymphoma). Although the overall incidence of cancer and associated mortality are declining, new cases and deaths in Canada are expected to increase in 2024, largely because of the growing and aging population. Efforts in prevention, screening, and treatment have reduced the impact of some cancers, but these short-term projections highlight the potential effect of cancer on people and health care systems in Canada.

Sections du résumé

BACKGROUND BACKGROUND
Cancer surveillance data are essential to help understand where gaps exist and progress is being made in cancer control. We sought to summarize the expected impact of cancer in Canada in 2024, with projections of new cancer cases and deaths from cancer by sex and province or territory for all ages combined.
METHODS METHODS
We obtained data on new cancer cases (i.e., incidence, 1984-2019) and deaths from cancer (i.e., mortality, 1984-2020) from the Canadian Cancer Registry and Canadian Vital Statistics Death Database, respectively. We projected cancer incidence and mortality counts and rates to 2024 for 23 types of cancer, overall, by sex, and by province or territory. We calculated age-standardized rates using data from the 2011 Canadian standard population.
RESULTS RESULTS
In 2024, the number of new cancer cases and deaths from cancer are expected to reach 247 100 and 88 100, respectively. The age-standardized incidence rate (ASIR) and mortality rate (ASMR) are projected to decrease slightly from previous years for both males and females, with higher rates among males (ASIR 562.2 per 100 000 and ASMR 209.6 per 100 000 among males; ASIR 495.9 per 100 000 and ASMR 152.8 per 100 000 among females). The ASIRs and ASMRs of several common cancers are projected to continue to decrease (i.e., lung, colorectal, and prostate cancer), while those of several others are projected to increase (i.e., liver and intrahepatic bile duct cancer, kidney cancer, melanoma, and non-Hodgkin lymphoma).
INTERPRETATION CONCLUSIONS
Although the overall incidence of cancer and associated mortality are declining, new cases and deaths in Canada are expected to increase in 2024, largely because of the growing and aging population. Efforts in prevention, screening, and treatment have reduced the impact of some cancers, but these short-term projections highlight the potential effect of cancer on people and health care systems in Canada.

Identifiants

DOI: 10.1503/cmaj.240095 PMID: 38740416
pubmed: 38740416
pii: 196/18/E615
doi: 10.1503/cmaj.240095
doi:

Types de publication

Journal Article

Langues

eng

Sous-ensembles de citation

IM

Pagination

E615-E623

Informations de copyright

© 2024 CMA Impact Inc. or its licensors.

Déclaration de conflit d'intérêts

Competing interests:: Darren Brenner reports support from the Canadian Cancer Society and the Canadian Partnership Against Cancer. Ryan Woods reports funding from the BC Cancer Foundation, the Canadian Partnership Against Cancer, and Statistics Canada. Donna Turner reports support to attend meetings from the Canadian Cancer Society. No other competing interests were declared.

Auteurs

Darren R Brenner (DR)

Departments of Oncology and Community Health Sciences (Brenner), Cumming School of Medicine, University of Calgary, Calgary, Alta.; Surveillance, Canadian Cancer Society (Gillis), Vancouver, BC; Centre for Surveillance and Applied Research (Demers), Public Health Agency of Canada; Centre for Population Health Data (Ellison, Billette, Zhang, Liu), Statistics Canada, Ottawa, Ont.; Population Oncology, BC Cancer (Woods), Vancouver, BC; Department of Surgery (Finley), McMaster University and St. Joseph's Health Care Centre, Hamilton, Ont.; System Performance & Analytics (Fitzgerald), Canadian Partnership Against Cancer, Toronto, Ont.; Nova Scotia Health Cancer Care Program (Saint-Jacques), Halifax, NS; Cancer Advanced Analytics (Shack), Cancer Care Alberta, Calgary, Alta; Department of Community Health Sciences (Turner), Max Rady College of Medicine, University of Manitoba; Paul Albrechtsen Research Institute (Turner), CancerCare Manitoba, Winnipeg, Man. Darren.Brenner@ucalgary.ca.

Jennifer Gillis (J)

Departments of Oncology and Community Health Sciences (Brenner), Cumming School of Medicine, University of Calgary, Calgary, Alta.; Surveillance, Canadian Cancer Society (Gillis), Vancouver, BC; Centre for Surveillance and Applied Research (Demers), Public Health Agency of Canada; Centre for Population Health Data (Ellison, Billette, Zhang, Liu), Statistics Canada, Ottawa, Ont.; Population Oncology, BC Cancer (Woods), Vancouver, BC; Department of Surgery (Finley), McMaster University and St. Joseph's Health Care Centre, Hamilton, Ont.; System Performance & Analytics (Fitzgerald), Canadian Partnership Against Cancer, Toronto, Ont.; Nova Scotia Health Cancer Care Program (Saint-Jacques), Halifax, NS; Cancer Advanced Analytics (Shack), Cancer Care Alberta, Calgary, Alta; Department of Community Health Sciences (Turner), Max Rady College of Medicine, University of Manitoba; Paul Albrechtsen Research Institute (Turner), CancerCare Manitoba, Winnipeg, Man.

Alain A Demers (AA)

Departments of Oncology and Community Health Sciences (Brenner), Cumming School of Medicine, University of Calgary, Calgary, Alta.; Surveillance, Canadian Cancer Society (Gillis), Vancouver, BC; Centre for Surveillance and Applied Research (Demers), Public Health Agency of Canada; Centre for Population Health Data (Ellison, Billette, Zhang, Liu), Statistics Canada, Ottawa, Ont.; Population Oncology, BC Cancer (Woods), Vancouver, BC; Department of Surgery (Finley), McMaster University and St. Joseph's Health Care Centre, Hamilton, Ont.; System Performance & Analytics (Fitzgerald), Canadian Partnership Against Cancer, Toronto, Ont.; Nova Scotia Health Cancer Care Program (Saint-Jacques), Halifax, NS; Cancer Advanced Analytics (Shack), Cancer Care Alberta, Calgary, Alta; Department of Community Health Sciences (Turner), Max Rady College of Medicine, University of Manitoba; Paul Albrechtsen Research Institute (Turner), CancerCare Manitoba, Winnipeg, Man.

Larry F Ellison (LF)

Departments of Oncology and Community Health Sciences (Brenner), Cumming School of Medicine, University of Calgary, Calgary, Alta.; Surveillance, Canadian Cancer Society (Gillis), Vancouver, BC; Centre for Surveillance and Applied Research (Demers), Public Health Agency of Canada; Centre for Population Health Data (Ellison, Billette, Zhang, Liu), Statistics Canada, Ottawa, Ont.; Population Oncology, BC Cancer (Woods), Vancouver, BC; Department of Surgery (Finley), McMaster University and St. Joseph's Health Care Centre, Hamilton, Ont.; System Performance & Analytics (Fitzgerald), Canadian Partnership Against Cancer, Toronto, Ont.; Nova Scotia Health Cancer Care Program (Saint-Jacques), Halifax, NS; Cancer Advanced Analytics (Shack), Cancer Care Alberta, Calgary, Alta; Department of Community Health Sciences (Turner), Max Rady College of Medicine, University of Manitoba; Paul Albrechtsen Research Institute (Turner), CancerCare Manitoba, Winnipeg, Man.

Jean-Michel Billette (JM)

Departments of Oncology and Community Health Sciences (Brenner), Cumming School of Medicine, University of Calgary, Calgary, Alta.; Surveillance, Canadian Cancer Society (Gillis), Vancouver, BC; Centre for Surveillance and Applied Research (Demers), Public Health Agency of Canada; Centre for Population Health Data (Ellison, Billette, Zhang, Liu), Statistics Canada, Ottawa, Ont.; Population Oncology, BC Cancer (Woods), Vancouver, BC; Department of Surgery (Finley), McMaster University and St. Joseph's Health Care Centre, Hamilton, Ont.; System Performance & Analytics (Fitzgerald), Canadian Partnership Against Cancer, Toronto, Ont.; Nova Scotia Health Cancer Care Program (Saint-Jacques), Halifax, NS; Cancer Advanced Analytics (Shack), Cancer Care Alberta, Calgary, Alta; Department of Community Health Sciences (Turner), Max Rady College of Medicine, University of Manitoba; Paul Albrechtsen Research Institute (Turner), CancerCare Manitoba, Winnipeg, Man.

Shary Xinyu Zhang (SX)

Departments of Oncology and Community Health Sciences (Brenner), Cumming School of Medicine, University of Calgary, Calgary, Alta.; Surveillance, Canadian Cancer Society (Gillis), Vancouver, BC; Centre for Surveillance and Applied Research (Demers), Public Health Agency of Canada; Centre for Population Health Data (Ellison, Billette, Zhang, Liu), Statistics Canada, Ottawa, Ont.; Population Oncology, BC Cancer (Woods), Vancouver, BC; Department of Surgery (Finley), McMaster University and St. Joseph's Health Care Centre, Hamilton, Ont.; System Performance & Analytics (Fitzgerald), Canadian Partnership Against Cancer, Toronto, Ont.; Nova Scotia Health Cancer Care Program (Saint-Jacques), Halifax, NS; Cancer Advanced Analytics (Shack), Cancer Care Alberta, Calgary, Alta; Department of Community Health Sciences (Turner), Max Rady College of Medicine, University of Manitoba; Paul Albrechtsen Research Institute (Turner), CancerCare Manitoba, Winnipeg, Man.

JiaQi Leon Liu (JL)

Departments of Oncology and Community Health Sciences (Brenner), Cumming School of Medicine, University of Calgary, Calgary, Alta.; Surveillance, Canadian Cancer Society (Gillis), Vancouver, BC; Centre for Surveillance and Applied Research (Demers), Public Health Agency of Canada; Centre for Population Health Data (Ellison, Billette, Zhang, Liu), Statistics Canada, Ottawa, Ont.; Population Oncology, BC Cancer (Woods), Vancouver, BC; Department of Surgery (Finley), McMaster University and St. Joseph's Health Care Centre, Hamilton, Ont.; System Performance & Analytics (Fitzgerald), Canadian Partnership Against Cancer, Toronto, Ont.; Nova Scotia Health Cancer Care Program (Saint-Jacques), Halifax, NS; Cancer Advanced Analytics (Shack), Cancer Care Alberta, Calgary, Alta; Department of Community Health Sciences (Turner), Max Rady College of Medicine, University of Manitoba; Paul Albrechtsen Research Institute (Turner), CancerCare Manitoba, Winnipeg, Man.

Ryan R Woods (RR)

Departments of Oncology and Community Health Sciences (Brenner), Cumming School of Medicine, University of Calgary, Calgary, Alta.; Surveillance, Canadian Cancer Society (Gillis), Vancouver, BC; Centre for Surveillance and Applied Research (Demers), Public Health Agency of Canada; Centre for Population Health Data (Ellison, Billette, Zhang, Liu), Statistics Canada, Ottawa, Ont.; Population Oncology, BC Cancer (Woods), Vancouver, BC; Department of Surgery (Finley), McMaster University and St. Joseph's Health Care Centre, Hamilton, Ont.; System Performance & Analytics (Fitzgerald), Canadian Partnership Against Cancer, Toronto, Ont.; Nova Scotia Health Cancer Care Program (Saint-Jacques), Halifax, NS; Cancer Advanced Analytics (Shack), Cancer Care Alberta, Calgary, Alta; Department of Community Health Sciences (Turner), Max Rady College of Medicine, University of Manitoba; Paul Albrechtsen Research Institute (Turner), CancerCare Manitoba, Winnipeg, Man.

Christian Finley (C)

Departments of Oncology and Community Health Sciences (Brenner), Cumming School of Medicine, University of Calgary, Calgary, Alta.; Surveillance, Canadian Cancer Society (Gillis), Vancouver, BC; Centre for Surveillance and Applied Research (Demers), Public Health Agency of Canada; Centre for Population Health Data (Ellison, Billette, Zhang, Liu), Statistics Canada, Ottawa, Ont.; Population Oncology, BC Cancer (Woods), Vancouver, BC; Department of Surgery (Finley), McMaster University and St. Joseph's Health Care Centre, Hamilton, Ont.; System Performance & Analytics (Fitzgerald), Canadian Partnership Against Cancer, Toronto, Ont.; Nova Scotia Health Cancer Care Program (Saint-Jacques), Halifax, NS; Cancer Advanced Analytics (Shack), Cancer Care Alberta, Calgary, Alta; Department of Community Health Sciences (Turner), Max Rady College of Medicine, University of Manitoba; Paul Albrechtsen Research Institute (Turner), CancerCare Manitoba, Winnipeg, Man.

Natalie Fitzgerald (N)

Departments of Oncology and Community Health Sciences (Brenner), Cumming School of Medicine, University of Calgary, Calgary, Alta.; Surveillance, Canadian Cancer Society (Gillis), Vancouver, BC; Centre for Surveillance and Applied Research (Demers), Public Health Agency of Canada; Centre for Population Health Data (Ellison, Billette, Zhang, Liu), Statistics Canada, Ottawa, Ont.; Population Oncology, BC Cancer (Woods), Vancouver, BC; Department of Surgery (Finley), McMaster University and St. Joseph's Health Care Centre, Hamilton, Ont.; System Performance & Analytics (Fitzgerald), Canadian Partnership Against Cancer, Toronto, Ont.; Nova Scotia Health Cancer Care Program (Saint-Jacques), Halifax, NS; Cancer Advanced Analytics (Shack), Cancer Care Alberta, Calgary, Alta; Department of Community Health Sciences (Turner), Max Rady College of Medicine, University of Manitoba; Paul Albrechtsen Research Institute (Turner), CancerCare Manitoba, Winnipeg, Man.

Nathalie Saint-Jacques (N)

Departments of Oncology and Community Health Sciences (Brenner), Cumming School of Medicine, University of Calgary, Calgary, Alta.; Surveillance, Canadian Cancer Society (Gillis), Vancouver, BC; Centre for Surveillance and Applied Research (Demers), Public Health Agency of Canada; Centre for Population Health Data (Ellison, Billette, Zhang, Liu), Statistics Canada, Ottawa, Ont.; Population Oncology, BC Cancer (Woods), Vancouver, BC; Department of Surgery (Finley), McMaster University and St. Joseph's Health Care Centre, Hamilton, Ont.; System Performance & Analytics (Fitzgerald), Canadian Partnership Against Cancer, Toronto, Ont.; Nova Scotia Health Cancer Care Program (Saint-Jacques), Halifax, NS; Cancer Advanced Analytics (Shack), Cancer Care Alberta, Calgary, Alta; Department of Community Health Sciences (Turner), Max Rady College of Medicine, University of Manitoba; Paul Albrechtsen Research Institute (Turner), CancerCare Manitoba, Winnipeg, Man.

Lorraine Shack (L)

Departments of Oncology and Community Health Sciences (Brenner), Cumming School of Medicine, University of Calgary, Calgary, Alta.; Surveillance, Canadian Cancer Society (Gillis), Vancouver, BC; Centre for Surveillance and Applied Research (Demers), Public Health Agency of Canada; Centre for Population Health Data (Ellison, Billette, Zhang, Liu), Statistics Canada, Ottawa, Ont.; Population Oncology, BC Cancer (Woods), Vancouver, BC; Department of Surgery (Finley), McMaster University and St. Joseph's Health Care Centre, Hamilton, Ont.; System Performance & Analytics (Fitzgerald), Canadian Partnership Against Cancer, Toronto, Ont.; Nova Scotia Health Cancer Care Program (Saint-Jacques), Halifax, NS; Cancer Advanced Analytics (Shack), Cancer Care Alberta, Calgary, Alta; Department of Community Health Sciences (Turner), Max Rady College of Medicine, University of Manitoba; Paul Albrechtsen Research Institute (Turner), CancerCare Manitoba, Winnipeg, Man.

Donna Turner (D)

Departments of Oncology and Community Health Sciences (Brenner), Cumming School of Medicine, University of Calgary, Calgary, Alta.; Surveillance, Canadian Cancer Society (Gillis), Vancouver, BC; Centre for Surveillance and Applied Research (Demers), Public Health Agency of Canada; Centre for Population Health Data (Ellison, Billette, Zhang, Liu), Statistics Canada, Ottawa, Ont.; Population Oncology, BC Cancer (Woods), Vancouver, BC; Department of Surgery (Finley), McMaster University and St. Joseph's Health Care Centre, Hamilton, Ont.; System Performance & Analytics (Fitzgerald), Canadian Partnership Against Cancer, Toronto, Ont.; Nova Scotia Health Cancer Care Program (Saint-Jacques), Halifax, NS; Cancer Advanced Analytics (Shack), Cancer Care Alberta, Calgary, Alta; Department of Community Health Sciences (Turner), Max Rady College of Medicine, University of Manitoba; Paul Albrechtsen Research Institute (Turner), CancerCare Manitoba, Winnipeg, Man.

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questionsmedicales.fr › Régions géographiques › Amériques › Amérique du Nord › Canada › Projected estimates of cancer in Canada in 2024.
questionsmedicales.fr › Tumeurs › Projected estimates of cancer in Canada in 2024.
questionsmedicales.fr › Environnement et santé publique › Santé publique › Méthodes épidémiologiques › Collecte de données › Registre civil › Morbidité › Incidence › Projected estimates of cancer in Canada in 2024.
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questionsmedicales.fr › Environnement et santé publique › Santé publique › Mesures épidémiologiques › Démographie › Répartition par sexe › Projected estimates of cancer in Canada in 2024.
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questionsmedicales.fr › Environnement et santé publique › Santé publique › Mesures épidémiologiques › Démographie › Répartition par âge › Projected estimates of cancer in Canada in 2024.
questionsmedicales.fr › Personnes › Tranches d'âge › Adulte › Projected estimates of cancer in Canada in 2024.
questionsmedicales.fr › Environnement et santé publique › Santé publique › Méthodes épidémiologiques › Collecte de données › Registre civil › Mortalité › Projected estimates of cancer in Canada in 2024.