Using an adaptive modeling framework to identify avian influenza spillover risk at the wild-domestic interface.
Avian influenza
Poultry
Spillover events
Waterfowl
Wild to domestic interface
Journal
Scientific reports
ISSN: 2045-2322
Titre abrégé: Sci Rep
Pays: England
ID NLM: 101563288
Informations de publication
Date de publication:
20 06 2024
20 06 2024
Historique:
received:
23
02
2024
accepted:
14
06
2024
medline:
21
6
2024
pubmed:
21
6
2024
entrez:
20
6
2024
Statut:
epublish
Résumé
The wild to domestic bird interface is an important nexus for emergence and transmission of highly pathogenic avian influenza (HPAI) viruses. Although the recent incursion of HPAI H5N1 Clade 2.3.4.4b into North America calls for emergency response and planning given the unprecedented scale, readily available data-driven models are lacking. Here, we provide high resolution spatial and temporal transmission risk models for the contiguous United States. Considering virus host ecology, we included weekly species-level wild waterfowl (Anatidae) abundance and endemic low pathogenic avian influenza virus prevalence metrics in combination with number of poultry farms per commodity type and relative biosecurity risks at two spatial scales: 3 km and county-level. Spillover risk varied across the annual cycle of waterfowl migration and some locations exhibited persistent risk throughout the year given higher poultry production. Validation using wild bird introduction events identified by phylogenetic analysis from 2022 to 2023 HPAI poultry outbreaks indicate strong model performance. The modular nature of our approach lends itself to building upon updated datasets under evolving conditions, testing hypothetical scenarios, or customizing results with proprietary data. This research demonstrates an adaptive approach for developing models to inform preparedness and response as novel outbreaks occur, viruses evolve, and additional data become available.
Identifiants
pubmed: 38902400
doi: 10.1038/s41598-024-64912-w
pii: 10.1038/s41598-024-64912-w
doi:
Types de publication
Journal Article
Langues
eng
Sous-ensembles de citation
IM
Pagination
14199Subventions
Organisme : National Science Foundation (NSF) "PIPP Phase 1: International Center for Avian Influenza Pandemic Prediction and Prevention"
ID : no. 2200310
Organisme : USDA Animal and Plant Health Inspection Service
ID : Cooperative Agreement 6000001762
Organisme : USDA Animal and Plant Health Inspection Service
ID : Cooperative Agreement 6000001762
Organisme : USDA Animal and Plant Health Inspection Service
ID : Cooperative Agreement 6000001762
Organisme : USDA Animal and Plant Health Inspection Service
ID : Cooperative Agreement 6000001762
Informations de copyright
© 2024. This is a U.S. Government work and not under copyright protection in the US; foreign copyright protection may apply.
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