A cloud-based medical device for predicting cardiac risk in suspected coronary artery disease: a rapid review and conceptual economic model.
CARDIAC RISK
COMPUTED TOMOGRAPHY ANGIOGRAPHY
CORONARY ARTERY INFLAMMATION
PREDICTION MODEL
RAPID REVIEW
Journal
Health technology assessment (Winchester, England)
ISSN: 2046-4924
Titre abrégé: Health Technol Assess
Pays: England
ID NLM: 9706284
Informations de publication
Date de publication:
Jul 2024
Jul 2024
Historique:
medline:
18
7
2024
pubmed:
18
7
2024
entrez:
18
7
2024
Statut:
ppublish
Résumé
The CaRi-Heart® device estimates risk of 8-year cardiac death, using a prognostic model, which includes perivascular fat attenuation index, atherosclerotic plaque burden and clinical risk factors. To provide an Early Value Assessment of the potential of CaRi-Heart Risk to be an effective and cost-effective adjunctive investigation for assessment of cardiac risk, in people with stable chest pain/suspected coronary artery disease, undergoing computed tomography coronary angiography. This assessment includes conceptual modelling which explores the structure and evidence about parameters required for model development, but not development of a full executable cost-effectiveness model. Twenty-four databases, including MEDLINE, MEDLINE In-Process and EMBASE, were searched from inception to October 2022. Review methods followed published guidelines. Study quality was assessed using Prediction model Risk Of Bias ASsessment Tool. Results were summarised by research question: prognostic performance; prevalence of risk categories; clinical effects; costs of CaRi-Heart. Exploratory searches were conducted to inform conceptual cost-effectiveness modelling. The only included study indicated that CaRi-Heart Risk may be predictive of 8 years cardiac death. The hazard ratio, per unit increase in CaRi-Heart Risk, adjusted for smoking, hypercholesterolaemia, hypertension, diabetes mellitus, Duke index, presence of high-risk plaque features and epicardial adipose tissue volume, was 1.04 (95% confidence interval 1.03 to 1.06) in the model validation cohort. Based on Prediction model Risk Of Bias ASsessment Tool, this study was rated as having high risk of bias and high concerns regarding its applicability to the decision problem specified for this Early Value Assessment. We did not identify any studies that reported information about the clinical effects or costs of using CaRi-Heart to assess cardiac risk. Exploratory searches, conducted to inform the conceptual cost-effectiveness modelling, indicated that there is a deficiency with respect to evidence about the effects of changing existing treatments or introducing new treatments, based on assessment of cardiac risk (by any method), or on measures of vascular inflammation (e.g. fat attenuation index). A de novo conceptual decision-analytic model that could be used to inform an early assessment of the cost effectiveness of CaRi-Heart is described. A combination of a short-term diagnostic model component and a long-term model component that evaluates the downstream consequences is anticipated to capture the diagnosis and the progression of coronary artery disease. The rapid review methods and pragmatic additional searches used to inform this Early Value Assessment mean that, although areas of potential uncertainty have been described, we cannot definitively state where there are evidence gaps. The evidence about the clinical utility of CaRi-Heart Risk is underdeveloped and has considerable limitations, both in terms of risk of bias and applicability to United Kingdom clinical practice. There is some evidence that CaRi-Heart Risk may be predictive of 8-year risk of cardiac death, for patients undergoing computed tomography coronary angiography for suspected coronary artery disease. However, whether and to what extent CaRi-Heart represents an improvement relative to current standard of care remains uncertain. The evaluation of the CaRi-Heart device is ongoing and currently available data are insufficient to fully inform the cost-effectiveness modelling. A large ( This study is registered as PROSPERO CRD42022366496. This award was funded by the National Institute for Health and Care Research (NIHR) Evidence Synthesis programme (NIHR award ref: NIHR135672) and is published in full in Coronary artery disease affects around 2.3 million people in the United Kingdom. It is caused by a build-up of fatty plaques on the walls of the blood vessels that supply the heart muscle. This can reduce the flow of blood to the heart and result in people experiencing chest pain (angina), especially when they exercise. Over time, the fatty plaques can grow and block more or all of the artery and blood clots can also form, causing blockage. A heart attack happens when the supply of blood to the heart muscle is blocked. People who have episodes of chest pain, whose doctors think that they may have coronary artery disease, can have a type of imaging (computed tomography coronary angiography) which shows whether there is any narrowing of their coronary arteries. When offering treatment, specialist heart doctors are likely to consider a person’s symptoms and other risk factors (such as family history of heart disease, diabetes and smoking history), as well as how much narrowing of the arteries has happened. CaRi-Heart® is a computer programme that uses information about inflammation in a person’s coronary arteries, together with recognised risk factors, such as age, sex, smoking, high cholesterol levels, high blood pressure and diabetes, to estimate an individual’s risk of dying from a heart attack in the next 8 years. There is evidence that CaRi-Heart® is better at estimating this risk than using information recognised risk factors alone. However, there is a lack of information about how treatment could change as a result of using CaRi-Heart® and whether any changes would improve outcomes for patients. There is also a lack of information about how much CaRi-Heart® would cost the National Health Service.
Sections du résumé
Background
UNASSIGNED
The CaRi-Heart® device estimates risk of 8-year cardiac death, using a prognostic model, which includes perivascular fat attenuation index, atherosclerotic plaque burden and clinical risk factors.
Objectives
UNASSIGNED
To provide an Early Value Assessment of the potential of CaRi-Heart Risk to be an effective and cost-effective adjunctive investigation for assessment of cardiac risk, in people with stable chest pain/suspected coronary artery disease, undergoing computed tomography coronary angiography. This assessment includes conceptual modelling which explores the structure and evidence about parameters required for model development, but not development of a full executable cost-effectiveness model.
Data sources
UNASSIGNED
Twenty-four databases, including MEDLINE, MEDLINE In-Process and EMBASE, were searched from inception to October 2022.
Methods
UNASSIGNED
Review methods followed published guidelines. Study quality was assessed using Prediction model Risk Of Bias ASsessment Tool. Results were summarised by research question: prognostic performance; prevalence of risk categories; clinical effects; costs of CaRi-Heart. Exploratory searches were conducted to inform conceptual cost-effectiveness modelling.
Results
UNASSIGNED
The only included study indicated that CaRi-Heart Risk may be predictive of 8 years cardiac death. The hazard ratio, per unit increase in CaRi-Heart Risk, adjusted for smoking, hypercholesterolaemia, hypertension, diabetes mellitus, Duke index, presence of high-risk plaque features and epicardial adipose tissue volume, was 1.04 (95% confidence interval 1.03 to 1.06) in the model validation cohort. Based on Prediction model Risk Of Bias ASsessment Tool, this study was rated as having high risk of bias and high concerns regarding its applicability to the decision problem specified for this Early Value Assessment. We did not identify any studies that reported information about the clinical effects or costs of using CaRi-Heart to assess cardiac risk. Exploratory searches, conducted to inform the conceptual cost-effectiveness modelling, indicated that there is a deficiency with respect to evidence about the effects of changing existing treatments or introducing new treatments, based on assessment of cardiac risk (by any method), or on measures of vascular inflammation (e.g. fat attenuation index). A de novo conceptual decision-analytic model that could be used to inform an early assessment of the cost effectiveness of CaRi-Heart is described. A combination of a short-term diagnostic model component and a long-term model component that evaluates the downstream consequences is anticipated to capture the diagnosis and the progression of coronary artery disease.
Limitations
UNASSIGNED
The rapid review methods and pragmatic additional searches used to inform this Early Value Assessment mean that, although areas of potential uncertainty have been described, we cannot definitively state where there are evidence gaps.
Conclusions
UNASSIGNED
The evidence about the clinical utility of CaRi-Heart Risk is underdeveloped and has considerable limitations, both in terms of risk of bias and applicability to United Kingdom clinical practice. There is some evidence that CaRi-Heart Risk may be predictive of 8-year risk of cardiac death, for patients undergoing computed tomography coronary angiography for suspected coronary artery disease. However, whether and to what extent CaRi-Heart represents an improvement relative to current standard of care remains uncertain. The evaluation of the CaRi-Heart device is ongoing and currently available data are insufficient to fully inform the cost-effectiveness modelling.
Future work
UNASSIGNED
A large (
Study registration
UNASSIGNED
This study is registered as PROSPERO CRD42022366496.
Funding
UNASSIGNED
This award was funded by the National Institute for Health and Care Research (NIHR) Evidence Synthesis programme (NIHR award ref: NIHR135672) and is published in full in
Coronary artery disease affects around 2.3 million people in the United Kingdom. It is caused by a build-up of fatty plaques on the walls of the blood vessels that supply the heart muscle. This can reduce the flow of blood to the heart and result in people experiencing chest pain (angina), especially when they exercise. Over time, the fatty plaques can grow and block more or all of the artery and blood clots can also form, causing blockage. A heart attack happens when the supply of blood to the heart muscle is blocked. People who have episodes of chest pain, whose doctors think that they may have coronary artery disease, can have a type of imaging (computed tomography coronary angiography) which shows whether there is any narrowing of their coronary arteries. When offering treatment, specialist heart doctors are likely to consider a person’s symptoms and other risk factors (such as family history of heart disease, diabetes and smoking history), as well as how much narrowing of the arteries has happened. CaRi-Heart® is a computer programme that uses information about inflammation in a person’s coronary arteries, together with recognised risk factors, such as age, sex, smoking, high cholesterol levels, high blood pressure and diabetes, to estimate an individual’s risk of dying from a heart attack in the next 8 years. There is evidence that CaRi-Heart® is better at estimating this risk than using information recognised risk factors alone. However, there is a lack of information about how treatment could change as a result of using CaRi-Heart® and whether any changes would improve outcomes for patients. There is also a lack of information about how much CaRi-Heart® would cost the National Health Service.
Autres résumés
Type: plain-language-summary
(eng)
Coronary artery disease affects around 2.3 million people in the United Kingdom. It is caused by a build-up of fatty plaques on the walls of the blood vessels that supply the heart muscle. This can reduce the flow of blood to the heart and result in people experiencing chest pain (angina), especially when they exercise. Over time, the fatty plaques can grow and block more or all of the artery and blood clots can also form, causing blockage. A heart attack happens when the supply of blood to the heart muscle is blocked. People who have episodes of chest pain, whose doctors think that they may have coronary artery disease, can have a type of imaging (computed tomography coronary angiography) which shows whether there is any narrowing of their coronary arteries. When offering treatment, specialist heart doctors are likely to consider a person’s symptoms and other risk factors (such as family history of heart disease, diabetes and smoking history), as well as how much narrowing of the arteries has happened. CaRi-Heart® is a computer programme that uses information about inflammation in a person’s coronary arteries, together with recognised risk factors, such as age, sex, smoking, high cholesterol levels, high blood pressure and diabetes, to estimate an individual’s risk of dying from a heart attack in the next 8 years. There is evidence that CaRi-Heart® is better at estimating this risk than using information recognised risk factors alone. However, there is a lack of information about how treatment could change as a result of using CaRi-Heart® and whether any changes would improve outcomes for patients. There is also a lack of information about how much CaRi-Heart® would cost the National Health Service.
Types de publication
Journal Article
Review
Langues
eng
Sous-ensembles de citation
IM
Pagination
1-105Références
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