Experimental evidence of climate change extinction risk in Neotropical montane epiphytes.
Journal
Nature communications
ISSN: 2041-1723
Titre abrégé: Nat Commun
Pays: England
ID NLM: 101528555
Informations de publication
Date de publication:
18 Jul 2024
18 Jul 2024
Historique:
received:
27
01
2023
accepted:
17
05
2024
medline:
19
7
2024
pubmed:
19
7
2024
entrez:
18
7
2024
Statut:
epublish
Résumé
Climate change is conjectured to endanger tropical species, particularly in biodiverse montane regions, but accurate estimates of extinction risk are limited by a lack of empirical data demonstrating tropical species' sensitivity to climate. To fill this gap, studies could match high-quality distribution data with multi-year transplant experiments. Here, we conduct field surveys of epiphyte distributions on three mountains in Central America and perform reciprocal transplant experiments on one mountain across sites that varied in elevation, temperature and aridity. We find that most species are unable to survive outside of their narrow elevational distributions. Additionally, our findings suggest starkly different outcomes from temperature conditions expected by 2100 under different climate change scenarios. Under temperatures associated with low-emission scenarios, most tropical montane epiphyte species will survive, but under emission scenarios that are moderately high, 5-36% of our study species may go extinct and 10-55% of populations may be lost. Using a test of tropical species' climate tolerances from a large field experiment, paired with detailed species distribution data across multiple mountains, our work strengthens earlier conjecture about risks of wide-spread extinctions from climate change in tropical montane ecosystems.
Identifiants
pubmed: 39025837
doi: 10.1038/s41467-024-49181-5
pii: 10.1038/s41467-024-49181-5
doi:
Types de publication
Journal Article
Langues
eng
Sous-ensembles de citation
IM
Pagination
6045Subventions
Organisme : National Science Foundation (NSF)
ID : GRF 1644760
Organisme : National Science Foundation (NSF)
ID : IGERT DGE 0966060
Organisme : Brown | Institute at Brown for Environment and Society, Brown University (IBES)
ID : NA
Informations de copyright
© 2024. The Author(s).
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