Atmospheric health burden across the century and the accelerating impact of temperature compared to pollution.
Journal
Nature communications
ISSN: 2041-1723
Titre abrégé: Nat Commun
Pays: England
ID NLM: 101528555
Informations de publication
Date de publication:
30 Oct 2024
30 Oct 2024
Historique:
received:
30
01
2024
accepted:
16
10
2024
medline:
31
10
2024
pubmed:
31
10
2024
entrez:
31
10
2024
Statut:
epublish
Résumé
Anthropogenic emissions alter atmospheric composition and therefore the climate, with implications for air pollution- and climate-related human health. Mortality attributable to air pollution and non-optimal temperature is a major concern, expected to shift under future climate change and socioeconomic scenarios. In this work, results from numerical simulations are used to assess future changes in mortality attributable to long-term exposure to both non-optimal temperature and air pollution simultaneously. Here we show that under a realistic scenario, end-of-century mortality could quadruple from present-day values to around 30 (95% confidence level:12-53) million people/year. While pollution-related mortality is projected to increase five-fold, temperature-related mortality will experience a seven-fold rise, making it a more important health risk factor than air pollution for at least 20% of the world's population. These findings highlight the urgent need to implement stronger climate policies to prevent future loss of life, outweighing the benefits of air quality improvements alone.
Identifiants
pubmed: 39477938
doi: 10.1038/s41467-024-53649-9
pii: 10.1038/s41467-024-53649-9
doi:
Substances chimiques
Air Pollutants
0
Types de publication
Journal Article
Langues
eng
Sous-ensembles de citation
IM
Pagination
9379Subventions
Organisme : EC | Horizon 2020 Framework Programme (EU Framework Programme for Research and Innovation H2020)
ID : 101057131
Informations de copyright
© 2024. The Author(s).
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