Neural network based estimates of the climate impact on mortality in Germany: application to storyline climate simulations.
Climate change
Human health
Machine learning
Mortality prediction
Storyline simulations
Journal
Scientific reports
ISSN: 2045-2322
Titre abrégé: Sci Rep
Pays: England
ID NLM: 101563288
Informations de publication
Date de publication:
30 10 2024
30 10 2024
Historique:
received:
15
12
2023
accepted:
22
10
2024
medline:
31
10
2024
pubmed:
31
10
2024
entrez:
31
10
2024
Statut:
epublish
Résumé
The aim of this work is the prediction of heat-related mortality for Germany under future, i.e. hotter, climate conditions. The prediction is made based on 2m temperature data from climate storyline simulations using machine learning techniques. We use an echo state network for linking the outputs of storyline climate simulations to the target data. The target data are all-cause mortality rates of Germany for all ages. The network is trained with present day climate model outputs. Model outputs of future, i.e. 2K and 4K warmer, storylines are used to predict mortality rates under such climatic conditions. We find that we can train an echo state network with recent temperature data and mortality and make plausible predictions about expected developments of mortality in Germany based on future climate storylines. The trained network can successfully predict mortality rates for future climate conditions. We find increased mortality during the summer months which is attributed to the presence of more severe heat waves. The mortality decrease found during winter can be explained milder winters leading to fewer deaths caused by respiratory diseases. However, mortality in winter is largely influenced by other factors such as influenza waves or vaccination rate and explainability due to temperature is limited.
Identifiants
pubmed: 39478144
doi: 10.1038/s41598-024-77398-3
pii: 10.1038/s41598-024-77398-3
doi:
Types de publication
Journal Article
Langues
eng
Sous-ensembles de citation
IM
Pagination
26074Informations de copyright
© 2024. The Author(s).
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