ACS-NSQIP risk calculator predicts cohort but not individual risk of complication following colorectal resection.
Clinical decision support
Colectomy
Colorectal surgery
Forecasting
Postoperative complications
Journal
American journal of surgery
ISSN: 1879-1883
Titre abrégé: Am J Surg
Pays: United States
ID NLM: 0370473
Informations de publication
Date de publication:
07 2019
07 2019
Historique:
received:
01
10
2018
revised:
27
10
2018
accepted:
14
11
2018
pubmed:
14
12
2018
medline:
17
1
2020
entrez:
8
12
2018
Statut:
ppublish
Résumé
Compare the ACS-NSQIP risk calculator with institutional risk for colorectal surgery. Actual and predicted outcomes were compared for both cohort and individuals. For the cohort, the risk calculator was accurate for 7/8 outcomes; there were more serious complications than predicted (19.4 vs 14.7%, p < 0.05). Risk calculator Brier scores and null Brier scores were comparable. with better outcomes than predicted were current smokers (OR 4.3 95% CI 1.2-15.4), ASA ≥ 3 (OR 10.4, 95% CI 2.8-39.2), underwent total/subtotal colectomy (OR 3.5, 95% CI 1.1-12.2) or operated by Surgeon 2 (OR 2.9, 95% CI 1.4-11.6). Patients with serious complications who had low predicted risk had low ASA (OR 10.5, 95% CI 1.3-82.6), and underwent operation by Surgeon 2 (OR 11.8, 95% CI 2.5, 55.2). Single center study, sample size may bias subgroup analyses. The ACS NSQIP calculator did not predict outcome better than sample risk.
Identifiants
pubmed: 30522696
pii: S0002-9610(18)31196-6
doi: 10.1016/j.amjsurg.2018.11.017
pii:
doi:
Types de publication
Journal Article
Langues
eng
Sous-ensembles de citation
IM
Pagination
131-135Informations de copyright
Copyright © 2018 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.