An evidence-based strategy to screen for pulmonary arterial hypertension in systemic sclerosis.
Journal
Seminars in arthritis and rheumatism
ISSN: 1532-866X
Titre abrégé: Semin Arthritis Rheum
Pays: United States
ID NLM: 1306053
Informations de publication
Date de publication:
12 2020
12 2020
Historique:
received:
18
10
2019
revised:
20
02
2020
accepted:
25
02
2020
pubmed:
5
4
2020
medline:
30
9
2021
entrez:
5
4
2020
Statut:
ppublish
Résumé
Clinical practice guidelines recommend screening all systemic sclerosis (SSc) patients for pulmonary arterial hypertension (PAH) with yearly echocardiograms. There is a paucity of evidence to support these guidelines. Can a prediction model identify SSc patients with a very low probability of PAH and therefore not requiring annual screening echocardiogram? We performed a case-control study of 925 unselected SSc subjects nested in a multi-centered, longitudinal cohort. The probability of PAH for each subject was calculated using the results of multivariate logistic regression models. A cut-off was identified for the estimated probability of PAH below which no subject developed PAH (100% sensitivity). Study subjects were predominantly female (87.5%), with mean (SD) age 58.6 (11.7) years and disease duration of 18.2 (12.2) years. Thirty-seven subjects developed PAH during 5407.97 person-years of observation (incidence rate 0.68 per 100 person-years). Shortness of breath (SOB), diffusing capacity for carbon monoxide (DLCO) and NT-proBNP were independent predictors of PAH. All SSc-PAH cases had a probability of PAH of >1.1%. Subjects below this cut-off, none of whom had PAH, accounted for 46.2% of the study population. A simple prediction model identified subjects at very low probability of PAH who could potentially forego annual screening echocardiogram. This represents almost half of SSc subjects in a general SSc population. This study, which is the first evidence-based study for the rational use of follow-up echocardiograms in an unselected SSc cohort, requires validation. The scoring system is freely available online at http://pahtool.ladydavis.ca.
Sections du résumé
BACKGROUND
Clinical practice guidelines recommend screening all systemic sclerosis (SSc) patients for pulmonary arterial hypertension (PAH) with yearly echocardiograms. There is a paucity of evidence to support these guidelines.
RESEARCH QUESTION
Can a prediction model identify SSc patients with a very low probability of PAH and therefore not requiring annual screening echocardiogram?
STUDY DESIGN AND METHODS
We performed a case-control study of 925 unselected SSc subjects nested in a multi-centered, longitudinal cohort. The probability of PAH for each subject was calculated using the results of multivariate logistic regression models. A cut-off was identified for the estimated probability of PAH below which no subject developed PAH (100% sensitivity).
RESULTS
Study subjects were predominantly female (87.5%), with mean (SD) age 58.6 (11.7) years and disease duration of 18.2 (12.2) years. Thirty-seven subjects developed PAH during 5407.97 person-years of observation (incidence rate 0.68 per 100 person-years). Shortness of breath (SOB), diffusing capacity for carbon monoxide (DLCO) and NT-proBNP were independent predictors of PAH. All SSc-PAH cases had a probability of PAH of >1.1%. Subjects below this cut-off, none of whom had PAH, accounted for 46.2% of the study population.
INTERPRETATION
A simple prediction model identified subjects at very low probability of PAH who could potentially forego annual screening echocardiogram. This represents almost half of SSc subjects in a general SSc population. This study, which is the first evidence-based study for the rational use of follow-up echocardiograms in an unselected SSc cohort, requires validation. The scoring system is freely available online at http://pahtool.ladydavis.ca.
Identifiants
pubmed: 32245697
pii: S0049-0172(20)30066-4
doi: 10.1016/j.semarthrit.2020.02.013
pii:
doi:
Types de publication
Journal Article
Multicenter Study
Research Support, Non-U.S. Gov't
Langues
eng
Sous-ensembles de citation
IM
Pagination
1421-1427Informations de copyright
Copyright © 2020 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.
Déclaration de conflit d'intérêts
Declaration of Competing Interest All authors declare no conflicts of interest.