Malignant pleural effusion survival prognostication in an Asian population.
cancer
malignant pleural effusion
mortality
prognosis
therapy
Journal
Respirology (Carlton, Vic.)
ISSN: 1440-1843
Titre abrégé: Respirology
Pays: Australia
ID NLM: 9616368
Informations de publication
Date de publication:
12 2020
12 2020
Historique:
received:
25
08
2019
revised:
10
02
2020
accepted:
07
04
2020
pubmed:
12
5
2020
medline:
29
6
2021
entrez:
12
5
2020
Statut:
ppublish
Résumé
LENT and PROMISE scores prognosticate survival in patients with MPE. Prognostication guides the selection of interventions and management. However, the predictive value of these scores and their refinements (modified-LENT) in Asians remain unclear. We aim to evaluate the performance of LENT, modified-LENT and clinical PROMISE scores; identify predictors of survival; and develop an alternative prognostication tool should current scores lack accuracy. Retrospective medical record review of an Asian pleuroscopy database from 2011 to 2018 of patients with MPE was conducted. The prognostic capability of current available scores were evaluated using C-statistics. Demographic and clinical variables as predictors of survival were assessed, and an alternative model was developed using logistic regression. In 130 patients, the C-statistics for modified-LENT was not significantly different from LENT (0.59 (95% CI: 0.52-0.67) vs 0.56 (95% CI: 0.49-0.63); P = 0.403). In 57 patients, the PROMISE C-statistics was 0.72 (95% CI: 0.53-0.91). In our alternative prognostication model (n = 147), Sex, Eastern Cooperative Oncology Group status, Leukocyte count, EGFR mutation, Chemotherapy and primary Tumour type (SELECT) were predictors of 90-day mortality (C-statistic = 0.87 (95% CI: 0.79-0.95)). SELECT sensitivity, specificity, positive and negative predictive values, and positive and negative likelihood ratios using a predicted probability of 90-day mortality cut-off point of 10% were 0.91, 0.68, 0.34, 0.98, 2.83 and 0.13, respectively. The LENT, modified-LENT and PROMISE scores have poor accuracy of survival prognostication in Asian patients with MPE undergoing pleuroscopy. The proposed SELECT prognostication model is accurate at identifying patients with high probability of survival at 90 days.
Sections du résumé
BACKGROUND AND OBJECTIVE
LENT and PROMISE scores prognosticate survival in patients with MPE. Prognostication guides the selection of interventions and management. However, the predictive value of these scores and their refinements (modified-LENT) in Asians remain unclear. We aim to evaluate the performance of LENT, modified-LENT and clinical PROMISE scores; identify predictors of survival; and develop an alternative prognostication tool should current scores lack accuracy.
METHODS
Retrospective medical record review of an Asian pleuroscopy database from 2011 to 2018 of patients with MPE was conducted. The prognostic capability of current available scores were evaluated using C-statistics. Demographic and clinical variables as predictors of survival were assessed, and an alternative model was developed using logistic regression.
RESULTS
In 130 patients, the C-statistics for modified-LENT was not significantly different from LENT (0.59 (95% CI: 0.52-0.67) vs 0.56 (95% CI: 0.49-0.63); P = 0.403). In 57 patients, the PROMISE C-statistics was 0.72 (95% CI: 0.53-0.91). In our alternative prognostication model (n = 147), Sex, Eastern Cooperative Oncology Group status, Leukocyte count, EGFR mutation, Chemotherapy and primary Tumour type (SELECT) were predictors of 90-day mortality (C-statistic = 0.87 (95% CI: 0.79-0.95)). SELECT sensitivity, specificity, positive and negative predictive values, and positive and negative likelihood ratios using a predicted probability of 90-day mortality cut-off point of 10% were 0.91, 0.68, 0.34, 0.98, 2.83 and 0.13, respectively.
CONCLUSION
The LENT, modified-LENT and PROMISE scores have poor accuracy of survival prognostication in Asian patients with MPE undergoing pleuroscopy. The proposed SELECT prognostication model is accurate at identifying patients with high probability of survival at 90 days.
Banques de données
ClinicalTrials.gov
['NCT01374542']
Types de publication
Journal Article
Observational Study
Langues
eng
Sous-ensembles de citation
IM
Pagination
1283-1291Commentaires et corrections
Type : CommentIn
Informations de copyright
© 2020 Asian Pacific Society of Respirology.
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