Long-term Infective Endocarditis Mortality Associated With Injection Opioid Use in the United States: A Modeling Study.
simulation modeling
endocarditis
injection drug use
opioids
serious infections
Journal
Clinical infectious diseases : an official publication of the Infectious Diseases Society of America
ISSN: 1537-6591
Titre abrégé: Clin Infect Dis
Pays: United States
ID NLM: 9203213
Informations de publication
Date de publication:
06 12 2021
06 12 2021
Historique:
received:
15
06
2020
accepted:
07
09
2020
pubmed:
10
9
2020
medline:
15
3
2022
entrez:
9
9
2020
Statut:
ppublish
Résumé
The expansion of the US opioid epidemic has led to significant increases in infections, such as infective endocarditis (IE), which is tied to injection behaviors. We aimed to estimate the population-level IE mortality rate among people who inject opioids and compare the risk of IE death against the risks of death from other causes. We developed a microsimulation model of the natural history of injection opioid use. We defined injection behavior profiles by both injection frequency and injection techniques. We accounted for competing risks of death and populated the model with primary and published data. We modeled cohorts of 1 million individuals with different injection behavior profiles until age 60 years. We combined model-generated estimates with published data to project the total expected number of IE deaths in the United States by 2030. The probabilities of death from IE by age 60 years for 20-, 30-, and 40-year-old men with high-frequency use with higher infection risk techniques compared to lower risk techniques for IE were 53.8% versus 3.7%, 51.4% versus 3.1%, and 44.5% versus 2.2%, respectively. The predicted population-level attributable fraction of 10-year mortality from IE among all risk groups was 20%. We estimated that approximately 257 800 people are expected to die from IE by 2030. The expected burden of IE among people who inject opioids in the United States is large. Adopting a harm reduction approach, including through expansion of syringe service programs, to address injection behaviors could have a major impact on decreasing the mortality rate associated with the opioid epidemic.
Sections du résumé
BACKGROUND
The expansion of the US opioid epidemic has led to significant increases in infections, such as infective endocarditis (IE), which is tied to injection behaviors. We aimed to estimate the population-level IE mortality rate among people who inject opioids and compare the risk of IE death against the risks of death from other causes.
METHODS
We developed a microsimulation model of the natural history of injection opioid use. We defined injection behavior profiles by both injection frequency and injection techniques. We accounted for competing risks of death and populated the model with primary and published data. We modeled cohorts of 1 million individuals with different injection behavior profiles until age 60 years. We combined model-generated estimates with published data to project the total expected number of IE deaths in the United States by 2030.
RESULTS
The probabilities of death from IE by age 60 years for 20-, 30-, and 40-year-old men with high-frequency use with higher infection risk techniques compared to lower risk techniques for IE were 53.8% versus 3.7%, 51.4% versus 3.1%, and 44.5% versus 2.2%, respectively. The predicted population-level attributable fraction of 10-year mortality from IE among all risk groups was 20%. We estimated that approximately 257 800 people are expected to die from IE by 2030.
CONCLUSIONS
The expected burden of IE among people who inject opioids in the United States is large. Adopting a harm reduction approach, including through expansion of syringe service programs, to address injection behaviors could have a major impact on decreasing the mortality rate associated with the opioid epidemic.
Identifiants
pubmed: 32901815
pii: 5903271
doi: 10.1093/cid/ciaa1346
pmc: PMC8662770
doi:
Substances chimiques
Analgesics, Opioid
0
Types de publication
Journal Article
Research Support, N.I.H., Extramural
Research Support, Non-U.S. Gov't
Langues
eng
Sous-ensembles de citation
IM
Pagination
e3661-e3669Subventions
Organisme : NIDA NIH HHS
ID : DP2 DA051864
Pays : United States
Organisme : NIDA NIH HHS
ID : K01 DA051684
Pays : United States
Organisme : NIDA NIH HHS
ID : P30 DA040500
Pays : United States
Organisme : NIDA NIH HHS
ID : R01 DA046527
Pays : United States
Informations de copyright
© The Author(s) 2020. Published by Oxford University Press for the Infectious Diseases Society of America. All rights reserved. For permissions, e-mail: journals.permissions@oup.com.
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