Prognostic value of impaired hepato-renal function and liver fibrosis in patients admitted for acute heart failure.

Cardiohepatic interactions have been a focus of attention in heart failure (HF). The model for end-stage liver disease excluding international normalized ratio (MELD-XI) score has been shown to be useful for predicting poor outcomes in patients with acute decompensated HF (ADHF). Furthermore, the fibrosis-4 (FIB-4) index, a simple marker to assess liver fibrosis, predicts adverse prognoses in patients with HF as well. However, there is little information available on the prognostic significance of the combination of the MELD-XI score and FIB-4 index in patients with ADHF and its association with left ventricular ejection fraction (LVEF) subgroup. We prospectively studied 466 consecutive patients who were admitted for ADHF [HF with reduced LVEF (LVEF < 40%): n = 164, HF with mid-range LVEF (40% ≤ LVEF < 50%): n = 104, and HF with preserved LVEF (LVEF ≥ 50%): n = 198]. We calculated the MELD-XI score and FIB-4 indices at discharge. The primary endpoint was all-cause death (ACD). During the mean follow-up period of 2.8 years, 143 patients had ACD. In the multivariate Cox analysis, the MELD-XI score and FIB-4 index were independently associated with ACD. Patients were stratified into the following three groups according to the median value of MELD-XI score (=11) and FIB-4 index (=2.13): Group 1 had both a low MELD-XI score and a low FIB-4 index; Group 2 had either a high MELD-XI score (MELD-XI score ≥11) or a high FIB-4 index (FIB-4 index ≥2.13); and Group 3 had both a high MELD-XI score and a high FIB-4 index. Kaplan-Meier analysis revealed that Group 2 and Group 3 had a significantly greater risk of ACD than Group 1 [Group 2 vs. Group 1: adjusted hazard ratio, 2.48 (95% confidence interval: 1.75-3.53), P < 0.0001; Group 3 vs. Group 1: adjusted hazard ratio, 7.03 (95% confidence interval: 3.95-13.7), P < 0.0001]. In addition, the patients with both a higher MELD-XI score and FIB-4 index showed a significantly higher risk of ACD also in the patients with HF with reduced LVEF, HF with mid-range LVEF, and HF with preserved LVEF (all P < 0.0001). The combination of MELD-XI score and FIB-4 index may be useful for stratifying patients at risk for ACD in patients with ADHF, irrespective of LVEF.

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© 2021 The Authors. ESC Heart Failure published by John Wiley & Sons Ltd on behalf of European Society of Cardiology.