Genetic evidence for the association between COVID-19 epidemic severity and timing of non-pharmaceutical interventions.
Journal
Nature communications
ISSN: 2041-1723
Titre abrégé: Nat Commun
Pays: England
ID NLM: 101528555
Informations de publication
Date de publication:
12 04 2021
12 04 2021
Historique:
received:
17
11
2020
accepted:
10
03
2021
entrez:
13
4
2021
pubmed:
14
4
2021
medline:
4
5
2021
Statut:
epublish
Résumé
Unprecedented public health interventions including travel restrictions and national lockdowns have been implemented to stem the COVID-19 epidemic, but the effectiveness of non-pharmaceutical interventions is still debated. We carried out a phylogenetic analysis of more than 29,000 publicly available whole genome SARS-CoV-2 sequences from 57 locations to estimate the time that the epidemic originated in different places. These estimates were examined in relation to the dates of the most stringent interventions in each location as well as to the number of cumulative COVID-19 deaths and phylodynamic estimates of epidemic size. Here we report that the time elapsed between epidemic origin and maximum intervention is associated with different measures of epidemic severity and explains 11% of the variance in reported deaths one month after the most stringent intervention. Locations where strong non-pharmaceutical interventions were implemented earlier experienced much less severe COVID-19 morbidity and mortality during the period of study.
Identifiants
pubmed: 33846321
doi: 10.1038/s41467-021-22366-y
pii: 10.1038/s41467-021-22366-y
pmc: PMC8041850
doi:
Types de publication
Journal Article
Research Support, Non-U.S. Gov't
Langues
eng
Sous-ensembles de citation
IM
Pagination
2188Subventions
Organisme : Medical Research Council
ID : MC_PC_19012
Pays : United Kingdom
Organisme : Wellcome Trust
ID : 220885/Z/20/Z
Pays : United Kingdom
Organisme : Medical Research Council
ID : MR/R015600/1
Pays : United Kingdom
Organisme : Department of Health
Pays : United Kingdom
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