Crude probability of death for cancer patients by spread of disease in New South Wales, Australia 1985 to 2014.
Adolescent
Adult
Age Factors
Aged
Aged, 80 and over
Breast Neoplasms
/ mortality
Cause of Death
Cohort Studies
Colorectal Neoplasms
/ mortality
Female
Humans
Lung Neoplasms
/ mortality
Male
Melanoma
/ mortality
Middle Aged
Neoplasms
/ mortality
New South Wales
/ epidemiology
Probability
Sex Factors
Time Factors
Young Adult
Probability of death
Stage
cancer
competing risks
temporal trends
Journal
Cancer medicine
ISSN: 2045-7634
Titre abrégé: Cancer Med
Pays: United States
ID NLM: 101595310
Informations de publication
Date de publication:
06 2021
06 2021
Historique:
revised:
15
01
2021
received:
24
09
2020
accepted:
23
02
2021
pubmed:
8
5
2021
medline:
18
12
2021
entrez:
7
5
2021
Statut:
ppublish
Résumé
To estimate trends in the crude probability of death for cancer patients by sex, age and spread of disease over the past 30 years in New South Wales, Australia. Population-based cohort of 716,501 people aged 15-89 years diagnosed with a first primary cancer during 1985-2014 were followed up to 31 December 2015. Flexible parametric relative survival models were used to estimate the age-specific crude probability of dying from cancer and other causes by calendar year, sex and spread of disease for all solid tumours combined and cancers of the colorectum, lung, female breast, prostate and melanoma. Estimated 10-year sex, age and spread-specific crude probabilities of cancer death generally decreased over time for most cancer types, although the magnitude of the decrease varied. For example, out of 100 fifty-year old men with localized prostate cancer, 12 would have died from their cancer if diagnosed in 1985 and 3 in 2014. Greater degree of spread was consistently associated with higher probability of dying from cancer, although outcomes for lung cancer were consistently poor. For both males and females, the probability of non-cancer deaths was higher among older patients, those diagnosed with localized cancers and where cancer survival was higher. Crude probabilities presented here may be useful in helping clinicians and their patients better understand prognoses and make informed decisions about treatment. They also provide novel insights into the relative contributions that early detection and improved treatments have on the observed temporal patterns in cancer survival.
Sections du résumé
BACKGROUND
To estimate trends in the crude probability of death for cancer patients by sex, age and spread of disease over the past 30 years in New South Wales, Australia.
METHODS
Population-based cohort of 716,501 people aged 15-89 years diagnosed with a first primary cancer during 1985-2014 were followed up to 31 December 2015. Flexible parametric relative survival models were used to estimate the age-specific crude probability of dying from cancer and other causes by calendar year, sex and spread of disease for all solid tumours combined and cancers of the colorectum, lung, female breast, prostate and melanoma.
RESULTS
Estimated 10-year sex, age and spread-specific crude probabilities of cancer death generally decreased over time for most cancer types, although the magnitude of the decrease varied. For example, out of 100 fifty-year old men with localized prostate cancer, 12 would have died from their cancer if diagnosed in 1985 and 3 in 2014. Greater degree of spread was consistently associated with higher probability of dying from cancer, although outcomes for lung cancer were consistently poor. For both males and females, the probability of non-cancer deaths was higher among older patients, those diagnosed with localized cancers and where cancer survival was higher.
CONCLUSION
Crude probabilities presented here may be useful in helping clinicians and their patients better understand prognoses and make informed decisions about treatment. They also provide novel insights into the relative contributions that early detection and improved treatments have on the observed temporal patterns in cancer survival.
Identifiants
pubmed: 33960140
doi: 10.1002/cam4.3844
pmc: PMC8178481
doi:
Types de publication
Journal Article
Langues
eng
Sous-ensembles de citation
IM
Pagination
3524-3532Informations de copyright
© 2021 The Authors. Cancer Medicine published by John Wiley & Sons Ltd.
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