Antigenic waves of virus-immune coevolution.
coevolution
fitness wave
host–pathogen dynamics
viral evolution
Journal
Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America
ISSN: 1091-6490
Titre abrégé: Proc Natl Acad Sci U S A
Pays: United States
ID NLM: 7505876
Informations de publication
Date de publication:
06 07 2021
06 07 2021
Historique:
entrez:
29
6
2021
pubmed:
30
6
2021
medline:
15
12
2021
Statut:
ppublish
Résumé
The evolution of many microbes and pathogens, including circulating viruses such as seasonal influenza, is driven by immune pressure from the host population. In turn, the immune systems of infected populations get updated, chasing viruses even farther away. Quantitatively understanding how these dynamics result in observed patterns of rapid pathogen and immune adaptation is instrumental to epidemiological and evolutionary forecasting. Here we present a mathematical theory of coevolution between immune systems and viruses in a finite-dimensional antigenic space, which describes the cross-reactivity of viral strains and immune systems primed by previous infections. We show the emergence of an antigenic wave that is pushed forward and canalized by cross-reactivity. We obtain analytical results for shape, speed, and angular diffusion of the wave. In particular, we show that viral-immune coevolution generates an emergent timescale, the persistence time of the wave's direction in antigenic space, which can be much longer than the coalescence time of the viral population. We compare these dynamics to the observed antigenic turnover of influenza strains, and we discuss how the dimensionality of antigenic space impacts the predictability of the evolutionary dynamics. Our results provide a concrete and tractable framework to describe pathogen-host coevolution.
Identifiants
pubmed: 34183397
pii: 2103398118
doi: 10.1073/pnas.2103398118
pmc: PMC8271616
pii:
doi:
Substances chimiques
Antigens, Viral
0
Types de publication
Journal Article
Research Support, Non-U.S. Gov't
Langues
eng
Sous-ensembles de citation
IM
Déclaration de conflit d'intérêts
The authors declare no competing interest.
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