Climate service driven adaptation may alleviate the impacts of climate change in agriculture.
Journal
Communications biology
ISSN: 2399-3642
Titre abrégé: Commun Biol
Pays: England
ID NLM: 101719179
Informations de publication
Date de publication:
12 11 2022
12 11 2022
Historique:
received:
22
09
2021
accepted:
31
10
2022
entrez:
13
11
2022
pubmed:
14
11
2022
medline:
16
11
2022
Statut:
epublish
Résumé
Building a resilient and sustainable agricultural sector requires the development and implementation of tailored climate change adaptation strategies. By focusing on durum wheat (Triticum turgidum subsp. durum) in the Euro-Mediterranean region, we estimate the benefits of adapting through seasonal cultivar-selection supported by an idealised agro-climate service based on seasonal climate forecasts. The cost of inaction in terms of mean yield losses, in 2021-2040, ranges from -7.8% to -5.8% associated with a 7% to 12% increase in interannual variability. Supporting cultivar choices at local scale may alleviate these impacts and even turn them into gains, from 0.4% to 5.3%, as soon as the performance of the agro-climate service increases. However, adaptation advantages on mean yield may come with doubling the estimated increase in the interannual yield variability.
Identifiants
pubmed: 36371540
doi: 10.1038/s42003-022-04189-9
pii: 10.1038/s42003-022-04189-9
pmc: PMC9653372
doi:
Types de publication
Journal Article
Research Support, Non-U.S. Gov't
Langues
eng
Sous-ensembles de citation
IM
Pagination
1235Informations de copyright
© 2022. The Author(s).
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