Weight of evidence of Y-STR matches computed with the discrete Laplace method: Impact of adding a suspect's profile to a reference database.

The discrete Laplace method is recommended by multiple parties (including the International Society for Forensic Genetics, ISFG) to estimate the weight of evidence in criminal cases when a suspect's Y-STR profile matches the crime scene Y-STR profile. Unfortunately, modelling the distribution of Y-STR profiles in the population reference database is time-consuming and requires expert knowledge. When the suspect's Y-STR profile is added to the database, as would be the protocol in many cases, the parameters of the discrete Laplace model must be re-estimated. We found that the likelihood ratios with and without adding the suspect's Y-STR profile were almost identical with 1,000 or more Y-STR profiles in the database for Y-STR profiles with 8, 12, and 17 loci. Thus, likelihood ratio calculations can be performed in seconds if an established discrete Laplace model based on at least 1,000 Y-STR profiles is used. A match in a population reference database with 17 Y-STR loci from at least 1,000 male individuals results in a likelihood ratio above 10,000 in approximately 94% of the cases, and above 100,000 in approximately 82% of the cases. We offer free software accessible without restrictions to estimate a discrete Laplace model using a Y-STR reference database and subsequently to calculate likelihood ratios.

Informations de copyright

Copyright © 2023 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Déclaration de conflit d'intérêts

Declaration of Competing Interest The authors declare that they have no known competing financial interests or personal relationships that could have appeared to influence the work reported in this paper.