Changes in the temperature-mortality relationship in France: Limited evidence of adaptation to a new climate.
Adaptation
Climate change
Cold
Heat
Mortality
Temperature
Journal
International journal of biometeorology
ISSN: 1432-1254
Titre abrégé: Int J Biometeorol
Pays: United States
ID NLM: 0374716
Informations de publication
Date de publication:
Apr 2023
Apr 2023
Historique:
received:
21
06
2022
accepted:
03
03
2023
revised:
18
01
2023
medline:
5
4
2023
pubmed:
18
3
2023
entrez:
17
3
2023
Statut:
ppublish
Résumé
Documenting trends in the health impacts of ambient temperature is key to supporting adaptation strategies to climate change. This paper explores changes in the temperature-related mortality in 18 French urban centers between 1970 and 2015. A multicentric time-series design with time-varying distributed lag nonlinear models was adopted to model the shape of the relationship and assess temporal changes in risks and impacts. The general shape of the temperature-mortality relationship did not change over time, except for an increasing risk at very low percentiles and a decreasing risk at very high percentiles. The relative risk at the 99.9 Despite the decreasing relative risk, the fraction of mortality attributable to extreme heat increased between 1970 and 2015, thus highlighting the need for proactive adaptation.
Identifiants
pubmed: 36930363
doi: 10.1007/s00484-023-02451-1
pii: 10.1007/s00484-023-02451-1
doi:
Types de publication
Journal Article
Langues
eng
Sous-ensembles de citation
IM
Pagination
725-734Informations de copyright
© 2023. The Author(s) under exclusive licence to International Society of Biometeorology.
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