Climate Change, Summer Temperature, and Heat-Related Mortality in Finland: Multicohort Study with Projections for a Sustainable vs. Fossil-Fueled Future to 2050.
Journal
Environmental health perspectives
ISSN: 1552-9924
Titre abrégé: Environ Health Perspect
Pays: United States
ID NLM: 0330411
Informations de publication
Date de publication:
Dec 2023
Dec 2023
Historique:
medline:
29
12
2023
pubmed:
27
12
2023
entrez:
27
12
2023
Statut:
ppublish
Résumé
Climate change scenarios illustrate various pathways in terms of global warming ranging from "sustainable development" (Shared Socioeconomic Pathway SSP1-1.9), the best-case scenario, to 'fossil-fueled development' (SSP5-8.5), the worst-case scenario. We examined the extent to which increase in daily average urban summer temperature is associated with future cause-specific mortality and projected heat-related mortality burden for the current warming trend and these two scenarios. We did an observational cohort study of 363,754 participants living in six cities in Finland. Using residential addresses, participants were linked to daily temperature records and electronic death records from national registries during summers (1 May to 30 September) 2000 to 2018. For each day of observation, heat index (average daily air temperature weighted by humidity) for the preceding 7 d was calculated for participants' residential area using a geographic grid at a spatial resolution of During a cohort total exposure period of 582,111,979 summer days (3,880,746 person-summers), we recorded 4,094 deaths, including 949 from cardiovascular disease. The multivariable-adjusted rate ratio (RR) for high ( The increase in average urban summer temperature will raise heat-related cardiovascular mortality burden. The estimated magnitude of this burden is
Sections du résumé
BACKGROUND
UNASSIGNED
Climate change scenarios illustrate various pathways in terms of global warming ranging from "sustainable development" (Shared Socioeconomic Pathway SSP1-1.9), the best-case scenario, to 'fossil-fueled development' (SSP5-8.5), the worst-case scenario.
OBJECTIVES
UNASSIGNED
We examined the extent to which increase in daily average urban summer temperature is associated with future cause-specific mortality and projected heat-related mortality burden for the current warming trend and these two scenarios.
METHODS
UNASSIGNED
We did an observational cohort study of 363,754 participants living in six cities in Finland. Using residential addresses, participants were linked to daily temperature records and electronic death records from national registries during summers (1 May to 30 September) 2000 to 2018. For each day of observation, heat index (average daily air temperature weighted by humidity) for the preceding 7 d was calculated for participants' residential area using a geographic grid at a spatial resolution of
RESULTS
UNASSIGNED
During a cohort total exposure period of 582,111,979 summer days (3,880,746 person-summers), we recorded 4,094 deaths, including 949 from cardiovascular disease. The multivariable-adjusted rate ratio (RR) for high (
DISCUSSION
UNASSIGNED
The increase in average urban summer temperature will raise heat-related cardiovascular mortality burden. The estimated magnitude of this burden is
Identifiants
pubmed: 38150315
doi: 10.1289/EHP12080
pmc: PMC10752417
doi:
Types de publication
Observational Study
Journal Article
Langues
eng
Sous-ensembles de citation
IM
Pagination
127020Subventions
Organisme : NIA NIH HHS
ID : R01 AG052519
Pays : United States
Organisme : Medical Research Council
ID : MR/S011676/1
Pays : United Kingdom
Organisme : NIA NIH HHS
ID : R56 AG052519
Pays : United States
Organisme : Wellcome Trust
Pays : United Kingdom
Organisme : NIA NIH HHS
ID : R01 AG056477
Pays : United States
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