Long-term monitoring of SARS-CoV-2 seroprevalence and variants in Ethiopia provides prediction for immunity and cross-immunity.

Humans Ethiopia / epidemiology COVID-19 / epidemiology SARS-CoV-2 / immunology Antibodies, Viral / blood Seroepidemiologic Studies Male Adult Female Adolescent Young Adult Middle Aged Child Aged Child, Preschool Vaccination COVID-19 Vaccines / immunology Retrospective Studies Reinfection / epidemiology

Journal

Nature communications

ISSN: 2041-1723

Titre abrégé: Nat Commun

Pays: England

ID NLM: 101528555

Informations de publication

Date de publication:
24 Apr 2024

Historique:

received: 29 08 2023

accepted: 03 04 2024

medline: 25 4 2024

pubmed: 25 4 2024

entrez: 24 4 2024

Statut: epublish

Résumé

Under-reporting of COVID-19 and the limited information about circulating SARS-CoV-2 variants remain major challenges for many African countries. We analyzed SARS-CoV-2 infection dynamics in Addis Ababa and Jimma, Ethiopia, focusing on reinfection, immunity, and vaccination effects. We conducted an antibody serology study spanning August 2020 to July 2022 with five rounds of data collection across a population of 4723, sequenced PCR-test positive samples, used available test positivity rates, and constructed two mathematical models integrating this data. A multivariant model explores variant dynamics identifying wildtype, alpha, delta, and omicron BA.4/5 as key variants in the study population, and cross-immunity between variants, revealing risk reductions between 24% and 69%. An antibody-level model predicts slow decay leading to sustained high antibody levels. Retrospectively, increased early vaccination might have substantially reduced infections during the delta and omicron waves in the considered group of individuals, though further vaccination now seems less impactful.

Identifiants

DOI: 10.1038/s41467-024-47556-2 PMID: 38658564

pubmed: 38658564

doi: 10.1038/s41467-024-47556-2

pii: 10.1038/s41467-024-47556-2

doi:

Substances chimiques

Antibodies, Viral 0

COVID-19 Vaccines 0

Types de publication

Journal Article Research Support, Non-U.S. Gov't

Langues

eng

Sous-ensembles de citation

Pagination

3463

Subventions

Organisme : Bundesministerium für Bildung und Forschung (Federal Ministry of Education and Research)

ID : MoKoCo19; 01KI20271 and FitMultiCell; 031L0159C and INSIDe; 031L0297A

Organisme : EC | Horizon 2020 Framework Programme (EU Framework Programme for Research and Innovation H2020)

ID : ORCHESTRA; 101016167

Organisme : Volkswagen Foundation (VolkswagenStiftung)

ID : E2; 99 450

Informations de copyright

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