A novel online prognostic tool to predict long-term survival after liver resection for intrahepatic cholangiocarcinoma: The "metro-ticket" paradigm.
Intrahepatic cholangiocarcinoma
metro-ticket
online calculator
prognosis
Journal
Journal of surgical oncology
ISSN: 1096-9098
Titre abrégé: J Surg Oncol
Pays: United States
ID NLM: 0222643
Informations de publication
Date de publication:
Aug 2019
Aug 2019
Historique:
received:
01
04
2019
accepted:
04
04
2019
pubmed:
21
4
2019
medline:
20
7
2019
entrez:
21
4
2019
Statut:
ppublish
Résumé
The aim of the current study was to develop an online calculator to predict survival after liver resection for intrahepatic cholangiocarcinoma (ICC) based on the "metro-ticket" paradigm. Between 1990 and 2016, patients who underwent liver resection for ICC were identified in an international multi-institutional database. The final multivariable model of survival was used to develop an online prognostic calculator of survival. Among 643 patients, actual 5-year overall survival (OS) after resection for ICC was 42.7%. On multivariable analysis, CA19-9 > 200 (hazard ratio (HR), 2.62; 95% CI, 2.01-3.42), sum of the number and largest tumor size >7 (HR, 1.88; 95% CI, 1.46-2.42), N1 disease (HR, 2.87; 95% CI, 1.98-4.16), R1 resection (HR, 1.72; 95% CI, 1.21-2.46), poor/undifferentiated tumor grade (HR, 1.74; 95% CI, 1.25-2.44), major vascular invasion (HR, 1.47; 95% CI, 1.03-2.10), and adjuvant chemotherapy (HR, 0.64; 95% CI, 0.45-0.89) were significantly associated with survival and were included in the online calculator. The predictive accuracy of the model was good to very good as the C-statistics to predict 5-year OS was 0.696 in the training dataset and 0.672 with bootstrapping resamples (n = 5000) in the test dataset. A novel, online calculator was developed to estimate the 5-year survival probability for patients undergoing resection for ICC. This tool could help provide useful information to guide treatment decision-making and inform conversations about prognosis.
Sections du résumé
BACKGROUND
BACKGROUND
The aim of the current study was to develop an online calculator to predict survival after liver resection for intrahepatic cholangiocarcinoma (ICC) based on the "metro-ticket" paradigm.
METHODS
METHODS
Between 1990 and 2016, patients who underwent liver resection for ICC were identified in an international multi-institutional database. The final multivariable model of survival was used to develop an online prognostic calculator of survival.
RESULTS
RESULTS
Among 643 patients, actual 5-year overall survival (OS) after resection for ICC was 42.7%. On multivariable analysis, CA19-9 > 200 (hazard ratio (HR), 2.62; 95% CI, 2.01-3.42), sum of the number and largest tumor size >7 (HR, 1.88; 95% CI, 1.46-2.42), N1 disease (HR, 2.87; 95% CI, 1.98-4.16), R1 resection (HR, 1.72; 95% CI, 1.21-2.46), poor/undifferentiated tumor grade (HR, 1.74; 95% CI, 1.25-2.44), major vascular invasion (HR, 1.47; 95% CI, 1.03-2.10), and adjuvant chemotherapy (HR, 0.64; 95% CI, 0.45-0.89) were significantly associated with survival and were included in the online calculator. The predictive accuracy of the model was good to very good as the C-statistics to predict 5-year OS was 0.696 in the training dataset and 0.672 with bootstrapping resamples (n = 5000) in the test dataset.
CONCLUSION
CONCLUSIONS
A novel, online calculator was developed to estimate the 5-year survival probability for patients undergoing resection for ICC. This tool could help provide useful information to guide treatment decision-making and inform conversations about prognosis.
Types de publication
Journal Article
Langues
eng
Sous-ensembles de citation
IM
Pagination
223-230Informations de copyright
© 2019 Wiley Periodicals, Inc.